Live prediction market odds for BAFTA Film Awards: Best Supporting Actor Winner. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-02-22
This market resolved on 2026-02-22. Sean Penn was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 100%.
This market has resolved.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Sean PennWINNER | 99% | 100% |
Adam Sandler | 1% | 50% |
Alexander Skarsgård | 1% | 50% |
Andrew Scott | 1% | 50% |
Benicio Del Toro | 1% | 50% |
Delroy Lindo | 1% | 50% |
Jacob Elordi | 1% | 50% |
Paul Mescal | 1% | 50% |
Peter Mullan | 1% | 50% |
Stellan Skarsgård | 1% | 50% |
BAFTA Film Awards: Best Supporting Actor Winner was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Sean Penn led the market at 100% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Adam Sandler at 26%, Alexander Skarsgård at 26%, Andrew Scott at 26%.
Sean Penn held the lead at 100% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Sean Penn, Adam Sandler at 26% and Alexander Skarsgård at 26% and Andrew Scott at 26% were the next closest contenders. The 49.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Sean Penn: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. Adam Sandler: 1¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. Alexander Skarsgård: 1¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. Andrew Scott: 1¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. The 49.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 100¢ meant the market estimated a 100% chance that Sean Penn would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 100¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 0% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
Sean Penn
99.5% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf Jacob Elordi has won Supporting Actor at the 79th BAFTA Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
