What was "BAFTA Film Awards: Best Supporting Actress Winner" and why did it matter?
BAFTA Film Awards: Best Supporting Actress Winner was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Wunmi Mosaku led the market at 100% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Amy Madigan at 26%, Ariana Grande at 26%, Brenda Blethyn at 26%.
What moved the odds on "BAFTA Film Awards: Best Supporting Actress Winner"?
Wunmi Mosaku held the lead at 100% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Wunmi Mosaku, Amy Madigan at 26% and Ariana Grande at 26% and Brenda Blethyn at 26% were the next closest contenders. The 49.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
What were the final odds for "BAFTA Film Awards: Best Supporting Actress Winner" across platforms?
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Wunmi Mosaku: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. Amy Madigan: 1¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. Ariana Grande: 1¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. Brenda Blethyn: 1¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. The 49.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
What did 100% odds for Wunmi Mosaku mean?
A price of 100¢ meant the market estimated a 100% chance that Wunmi Mosaku would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 100¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 0% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
