Live prediction market odds for Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms. Compare prices across Polymarket and Predict.fun.
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Polymarket / Predict.fun
2026-11-03
Predict.fun + Polymarket pair (auto-ingested via condition_id cross-ref)
Democrats Sweep leads the “Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms” event at 43.7% implied probability. Other contenders include R Senate, D House (33.0%), and Other (0.5%). Platforms are tightly aligned at a 0.9% spread.
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Polymarket, Predict.fun). Democrats Sweep leads at 44% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include R Senate, D House at 34%, Other at 1%.
Democrats Sweep currently leads at 44% implied probability. Behind Democrats Sweep, R Senate, D House at 34% and Other at 1% are the next closest contenders. Platforms were tightly aligned at a 0.9% spread, suggesting broad consensus on the odds.
Here are the latest odds across Polymarket, Predict.fun: Democrats Sweep: 44¢ on Polymarket. R Senate, D House: 34¢ on Polymarket. Other: 1¢ on Polymarket. Platforms are tightly aligned at a 0.9% spread, leaving little room for cross-platform arbitrage.
A price of 44¢ means the market estimates a 44% probability that Democrats Sweep will be the outcome. Buying one share at 44¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 127% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.
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Democrats Sweep
43.7% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Predict.fun.
Predict.fun{'description': "This market will resolve according to the result of the 2026 United States midterm elections.\n\nA party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives, if they win a majority of voting seats.\n\nA party will be considered to have 'control' of the Senate if they have more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice President.\n\nA candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.\n\nIf control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections. \n\nIf control of the Senate is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Majority Leader of the US Senate who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called winners of the House and Senate in the 2026 United States midterm elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification"}
