Live prediction market odds for Bank of Canada decision in April?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-04-28
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the Bank of Canada decision scheduled for April 2026. This decision will influence monetary policy and economic conditions, impacting inflation and interest rates in Canada.
No change leads the “Bank of Canada decision in April” event at 96.4% implied probability, followed by Cut 25bps at 1.6%. Platforms are tightly aligned at a 0.8% spread.
Economic indicators such as inflation rates, employment figures, and GDP growth play a crucial role in the Bank's decision-making process. Additionally, global economic conditions and financial stability are also considered.
The Bank of Canada typically reviews interest rates eight times a year during scheduled meetings. These meetings allow the Bank to adjust its monetary policy in response to changing economic conditions.
Outcomes can range from maintaining the current interest rate to increasing or decreasing it by a specified basis points. Each decision can have significant implications for borrowing costs, consumer spending, and overall economic growth.
Bank of Canada decision in April is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). No change leads at 96% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Cut 25bps at 2%.
No change currently leads at 96% implied probability. Behind No change, Cut 25bps at 2% are the next closest contenders. Platforms were tightly aligned at a 0.8% spread, suggesting broad consensus on the odds.
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As seen on Financial Times and Polymark.et
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf the Bank of Canada does a Cut of 25bps at its Apr 29, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
PolymarketThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's April 2026 meeting. If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its April 29, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
PolymarketNo change
96.4% avg
