Live prediction market odds for Bank of Japan rate decision in April. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket and Opinion.
Kalshi / Polymarket / Opinion
2026-04-28
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the Bank of Japan's rate decision scheduled for April 2026. This decision will impact Japan's economic recovery and inflation control efforts, influencing global financial markets.
Hike 25bps leads the “Bank of Japan rate decision in April” event at 54.4% implied probability. Other contenders include No change (38.1%), 50+ bps increase (1.0%), and Decrease rates (22.8%). A 44.4% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Economic indicators such as inflation rates, employment figures, and GDP growth play a crucial role. Additionally, global economic conditions and monetary policy trends in other countries are considered.
The Bank of Japan typically meets every one to two months to review its monetary policy. Decisions can vary based on economic conditions and inflation targets.
Possible outcomes include maintaining the current rate, increasing it, or decreasing it. Each scenario can have significant implications for domestic and international markets.
Bank of Japan rate decision in April is a prediction market event currently tracked across 3 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket, Opinion). Hike 25bps leads at 54% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include No change at 38%, 50+ bps increase at 1%, Decrease rates at 1%.
Hike 25bps currently leads at 54% implied probability. Behind Hike 25bps, No change at 38% and 50+ bps increase at 1% and Decrease rates at 1% are the next closest contenders. The 44.4% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Hike 25bps
54.4% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf the Bank of Japan takes the action of Hike 25bps at April 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "No change" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings. The specific basis point ranges are inclusive (e.g., "25-50bp" includes both 25bp and 50bp changes).
