Live prediction market odds for Billboard Hot 100 #1 on Apr 11, 2026 chart?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-04-06
This market resolved on 2026-04-06. Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 100%.
Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking which song will top the Billboard Hot 100 chart on April 11, 2026. Chart performance can be influenced by streaming numbers, radio play, and public reception, making this a dynamic and competitive market.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Choosin' Texas - Ella LangleyWINNER | 99% | 100% |
Golden - HUNTR/X | 1% | 50% |
I Just Might - Bruno Mars | 1% | 50% |
Man I Need - Olivia Dean |
The Billboard Hot 100 rankings are determined by a combination of sales, radio airplay, and streaming data. This multifaceted approach reflects the popularity of songs across different platforms.
The Billboard Hot 100 chart is updated weekly, typically on Mondays. This allows for a fresh evaluation of song performance based on the latest data.
Prediction markets allow participants to bet on the outcomes of events, reflecting collective sentiment and expectations. They can provide insights into public opinion and potential trends in the entertainment industry.
Billboard Hot 100 #1 on Apr 11, 2026 chart was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley led the market at 100% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Golden - HUNTR/X at 26%, I Just Might - Bruno Mars at 26%, Man I Need - Olivia Dean at 26%.
Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley held the lead at 100% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley, Golden - HUNTR/X at 26% and I Just Might - Bruno Mars at 26% and Man I Need - Olivia Dean at 26% were the next closest contenders. The 49.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley
99.5% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf SWIM is the #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 charts for Apr 11, 2026 then the market resolves to Yes.
This market and these products have not been endorsed by Billboard. Any references to "Billboard", the "Hot 100," or any other associated marks are descriptive only, and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Billboard and Kalshi.The Billboard Hot 100 measures music consumption from a Friday to Thursday. This is released as the chart for the Saturday following Thursday (in this case, Apr 11, 2026). Clarification 7/18/23: In the past, this market has used date to refer to the date at the end of the tracking week (the week in which Billboard records music consumption to be eligible for the Hot 100), a Thursday. In the future, the date in the Rulebook and the date listed in the short market rules on the market page will refer to the date that a given Billboard chart is dated for, as the Instructions in the market rules model. This is the second Saturday following the end of the tracking week. For example, today's new market will cover music consumption ending Thursday, July 20. The chart will be released on Tuesday, July 25. it will have a date corresponding to Saturday, July 29, 2023.
| 1% |
| 50% |
Ordinary - Alex Warren | 1% | 50% |
So Easy (To Fall In Love) - Olivia Dean | 1% | 50% |
Stateside - PinkPantheress & Zara Larsson | 1% | 50% |
SWIM - BTS | 1% | 50% |
The Fate of Ophelia - Taylor Swift | 1% | 50% |
