Live prediction market odds for Blue tsunami in 2026?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-11-30
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the potential for a blue tsunami in the 2026 elections, focusing on Democratic control in Congress. The outcome could significantly impact legislative priorities and the political landscape leading into the 2028 presidential election.
Blue tsunami in 2026 is priced at 36.8% implied probability for the “Blue tsunami in 2026” event. A 4.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
A blue tsunami refers to a significant electoral victory for the Democratic Party, resulting in a substantial increase in seats in Congress. It typically suggests a strong voter turnout and support for Democratic candidates.
The results of the 2026 elections could shape the political environment and party dynamics leading into the 2028 presidential race. A strong performance by Democrats may bolster their candidates and influence campaign strategies.
Factors such as economic conditions, voter turnout, and key issues like healthcare and climate change will play a crucial role in the 2026 elections. Additionally, the effectiveness of the current administration's policies may sway public opinion.
Blue tsunami in 2026 is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Blue tsunami in 2026 leads at 37% implied probability, making it the market favorite.
Blue tsunami in 2026 currently leads at 37% implied probability. The 4.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf ALL of the following occur: Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House after the 2026 midterms AND Democrats hold 51 or more seats in the Senate after the 2026 midterms, then the market resolves to Yes.
This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: "Will Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House?" uses SEATSCONGRESS, "Will Democrats hold 51 or more seats in the Senate?" uses SEATSCONGRESS. For economic data releases, resolution uses the first officially released value (not preliminary or revised estimates unless specified). All conditions must be satisfied within the specified time period. This market will resolve based on the composition of the U.S. House of Representatives and the Senate on February 1, 2027. Individuals caucusing with either party will be included with them (e.g. an Independent who caucuses with a party, like Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders who caucuses with the Democrats, would be counted as a Democrat).
PolymarketThis market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections: - Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House - Democrats hold 51 or more seats in the Senate Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueTsunami.pdf
Blue tsunami in 2026
36.8% avg
