What are the current odds for "Bulgaria Presidential Election" across platforms?

Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Krum Zarkov: 5¢ on Kalshi, 25¢ on Polymarket. Atanas Atanasov: 3¢ on Kalshi, 25¢ on Polymarket. Kostadin Kostadinov: 1¢ on Kalshi, 25¢ on Polymarket. Nikolai Denkov: 13¢ on Kalshi, 12¢ on Polymarket. The 24.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.

What does it mean that Krum Zarkov is at 15%?

A price of 15¢ means the market estimates a 15% probability that Krum Zarkov will be the outcome. Buying one share at 15¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 567% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.

Bulgaria Presidential Election Odds

Prediction Hunt

Markets Smart Money Arbitrage Trending Paper Trading API Pricing

Live

ARBITRAGE_ACTIVE // SPREAD: 24.0% // +$2400.00

Join our Discord for breaking news alerts, driven by real-time movements in prediction markets.

Discord

About This Market

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the Bulgaria Presidential Election set for November 30, 2026. This election is crucial as it will determine the country's leadership and influence its domestic and foreign policies in a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape.

Krum Zarkov leads the “Bulgaria Presidential Election” event at 15.0% implied probability. Other contenders include Atanas Atanasov (13.8%), Kostadin Kostadinov (13.0%), Nikolai Denkov (12.3%), and Yanaki Stoilov (9.5%). A 24.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities

Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

2 platforms

Krum ZarkovARB

14% Avg

5¢

30¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	2.5%	0¢	5¢	95¢	100¢
Polymarket	25.0%	20¢	30¢	70¢	80¢

Atanas AtanasovARB

14% Avg

5¢

30¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	2.5%	0¢	5¢	95¢	100¢
Polymarket	25.0%	20¢	30¢	70¢	80¢

Kostadin KostadinovARB

14% Avg

5¢

30¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	2.5%	0¢	5¢	95¢	100¢
Polymarket	25.0%	20¢	30¢	70¢	80¢

Nikolai Denkov

11% Avg

19¢

12¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	10.0%	1¢	19¢	81¢	99¢
Polymarket	11.5%	11¢	12¢	88¢	89¢

Yanaki StoilovARB

9% Avg

4¢

20¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	2.0%	0¢	4¢	96¢	100¢
Polymarket	15.0%	10¢	20¢	80¢	90¢

Candidate Spotlight

About Krum Zarkov

Krum Zarkov is the leader of the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP), elected on February 7, 2026. He served as Minister of Justice from August 2022 to June 2023. His leadership is pivotal for BSP's strategy in the upcoming presidential election.

About Atanas Atanasov

Atanas Atanasov is a Bulgarian politician and activist, currently serving as a Member of the Haskovo City Council since November 2023. He previously held the position of Minister of Culture from December 2021 to August 2022 in the Petkov Government. His experience in government and local politics makes him a relevant candidate in the Bulgaria Presidential Election.

About Nikolai Denkov

Nikolai Denkov is a Bulgarian politician and scientist, currently serving as a Member of the National Assembly since April 2024. He was Prime Minister of Bulgaria from June 2023 to April 2024, leading a coalition government. Denkov's candidacy in the upcoming presidential election is significant due to his recent tenure as Prime Minister and his prominent role in Bulgarian politics.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the significance of the Bulgaria Presidential Election?

The election will shape Bulgaria's political direction and impact its relations within the European Union and neighboring countries. Leadership choices can influence economic policies and social reforms.

How do prediction markets reflect public sentiment for this election?

Prediction markets aggregate bets on various candidates, reflecting the collective expectations of investors regarding their chances of winning. Shifts in odds can indicate changing public sentiment and political dynamics leading up to the election.

What factors could influence the outcome of the election?

Key factors include economic conditions, public opinion on government performance, and the candidates' campaign strategies. Additionally, external events such as international relations and domestic protests may sway voter preferences.

What is "Bulgaria Presidential Election" and why does it matter?

Bulgaria Presidential Election is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Krum Zarkov leads at 15% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Atanas Atanasov at 14%, Kostadin Kostadinov at 13%, Nikolai Denkov at 12%.

What is moving the odds on "Bulgaria Presidential Election"?

Krum Zarkov currently leads at 15% implied probability. Behind Krum Zarkov, Atanas Atanasov at 14% and Kostadin Kostadinov at 13% and Nikolai Denkov at 12% are the next closest contenders. The 24.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

Automate This Market

Build a custom bot or arb alert system for the “Bulgaria Presidential Election” event. All for free.

As seen on Financial Times, Guardian and Polymark.et

Used by builders and traders in our 3K+ Discord community

Smart Trade Router

Outcome

Amount

Max Price (opt)?

Resolution Oracles

Kalshi

Kalshi Rules

Polymarket

UMA Optimistic Oracle Consensus of Sources

Read Full Market Rulebooks

Stats

Spread24.0%

Platforms2

Candidates7

Market Rulebook: Bulgaria Presidential Election

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.

Rules for Candidate:

Kalshi

Primary Rule

If Blagomir Kotsev wins the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins. If two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No. If both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No. For coalitions/alliances, only those formally registered with electoral authorities before the nomination deadline count, not post-election governing arrangements. For referenda/plebiscites, the specified option achieves the required threshold per applicable law (simple majority, supermajority, dual majority, turnout requirements). If multiple thresholds exist (e.g., majority of votes AND majority of states), all must be met. For presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system (electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable) and either (i) is inaugurated/sworn in/takes office, or (ii) the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office is the winner. The market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority. Contested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction. In cases of competing claims (two presidents, disputed succession), the individual recognized by the hierarchical majority of Source Agencies prevails. The market remains open until the rescheduled election or two years from the original date, whichever comes first. Repeated postponements count towards the 2-year deadline. If results are annulled by a court/authority AFTER announcement but BEFORE the winner takes office, the Contract remains open until re-run election or expiration.

Resolution Oracles

Kalshi Rules

Polymarket

Primary Rule

Presidential elections in Bulgaria are expected to be held in the Fall of 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next presidential election in Bulgaria. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) (www.cik.bg/).

Resolution Oracles

UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources

Bulgaria Presidential Election

About This Market

Price History

Live Markets

Candidate Spotlight

About Krum Zarkov

About Atanas Atanasov

About Nikolai Denkov

Frequently Asked Questions

Smart Trade Router

Resolution Oracles

Market Rulebook: Bulgaria Presidential Election

About Yanaki Stoilov

About Rosen Zhelyazkov

About Blagomir Kotsev