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Live prediction market odds for Bulgaria Presidential Election. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.

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Kalshi / Polymarket

Bulgaria Presidential Election

2026-11-30

About This Market

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Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the Bulgaria Presidential Election set for November 30, 2026. This election is crucial as it will determine the country's leadership and influence its domestic and foreign policies in a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape.

Nikolai Denkov leads the “Bulgaria Presidential Election” event at 19.5% implied probability. Other contenders include Rosen Zhelyazkov (13.3%), Blagomir Kotsev (6.3%), Yanaki Stoilov (3.8%), and Krum Zarkov (3.1%). A 7.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
No price history available

Live Markets

2 platforms
ND
Nikolai DenkovARB
21% Avg
Kalshi21¢
Polymarket24¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
18.5%16¢21¢79¢84¢
PolymarketPolymarket
23.0%22¢24¢76¢78¢
RZ
Rosen ZhelyazkovARB
13% Avg
Kalshi17¢
Polymarket12¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
15.5%14¢17¢83¢86¢
PolymarketPolymarket
11.0%10¢12¢88¢90¢
BK
Blagomir Kotsev
7% Avg
Kalshi7¢
Polymarket10¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
4.5%2¢7¢93¢98¢
PolymarketPolymarket
8.5%7¢10¢90¢93¢
YS
Yanaki Stoilov
3% Avg
Kalshi5¢
Polymarket7¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
2.5%0¢5¢95¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
4.0%1¢7¢93¢99¢
KZ
Krum Zarkov
3% Avg
Kalshi7¢
Polymarket2¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
3.5%0¢7¢94¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
1.5%1¢2¢98¢99¢

Candidate Spotlight

About Nikolai Denkov

Nikolai Denkov is a Bulgarian politician and scientist, currently serving as a Member of the National Assembly since April 2024. He was Prime Minister of Bulgaria from June 2023 to April 2024, leading a coalition government. Denkov's candidacy in the upcoming presidential election is significant due to his recent tenure as Prime Minister and his prominent role in Bulgarian politics.

About Rosen Zhelyazkov

Rosen Zhelyazkov is a Bulgarian politician who served as Prime Minister from January 16, 2025, to February 19, 2026. Prior to this, he was Minister of Transport from 2018 to 2021 and Speaker of the National Assembly from 2023 to 2024. His tenure as Prime Minister was marked by significant public protests leading to his resignation.

About Blagomir Kotsev

Blagomir Kotsev is the current Mayor of Varna, Bulgaria, elected in November 2023. Prior to this, he served as the regional governor of Varna. His candidacy in the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election is notable due to his recent political prominence and leadership experience.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the significance of the Bulgaria Presidential Election?

The election will shape Bulgaria's political direction and impact its relations within the European Union and neighboring countries. Leadership choices can influence economic policies and social reforms.

How do prediction markets reflect public sentiment for this election?

Prediction markets aggregate bets on various candidates, reflecting the collective expectations of investors regarding their chances of winning. Shifts in odds can indicate changing public sentiment and political dynamics leading up to the election.

What factors could influence the outcome of the election?

Key factors include economic conditions, public opinion on government performance, and the candidates' campaign strategies. Additionally, external events such as international relations and domestic protests may sway voter preferences.

What is "Bulgaria Presidential Election" and why does it matter?

Bulgaria Presidential Election is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Nikolai Denkov leads at 20% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Rosen Zhelyazkov at 13%, Blagomir Kotsev at 6%, Yanaki Stoilov at 4%.

What is moving the odds on "Bulgaria Presidential Election"?

Nikolai Denkov currently leads at 20% implied probability. Behind Nikolai Denkov, Rosen Zhelyazkov at 13% and Blagomir Kotsev at 6% and Yanaki Stoilov at 4% are the next closest contenders. The 7.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources
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Stats
Spread7.0%
Platforms2
Candidates7

Market Rulebook: Bulgaria Presidential Election

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Blagomir Kotsev wins the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins. If two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No. If both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No. For coalitions/alliances, only those formally registered with electoral authorities before the nomination deadline count, not post-election governing arrangements. For referenda/plebiscites, the specified option achieves the required threshold per applicable law (simple majority, supermajority, dual majority, turnout requirements). If multiple thresholds exist (e.g., majority of votes AND majority of states), all must be met. For presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system (electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable) and either (i) is inaugurated/sworn in/takes office, or (ii) the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office is the winner. The market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority. Contested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction. In cases of competing claims (two presidents, disputed succession), the individual recognized by the hierarchical majority of Source Agencies prevails. The market remains open until the rescheduled election or two years from the original date, whichever comes first. Repeated postponements count towards the 2-year deadline. If results are annulled by a court/authority AFTER announcement but BEFORE the winner takes office, the Contract remains open until re-run election or expiration.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

Presidential elections in Bulgaria are expected to be held in the Fall of 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next presidential election in Bulgaria. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) (www.cik.bg/).

Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources
Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

About Yanaki Stoilov

Yanaki Stoilov is a Bulgarian politician and former Minister of Justice. He served as Minister of Justice from 2013 to 2014. He is a candidate in the upcoming Bulgarian presidential election.

About Krum Zarkov

Krum Zarkov is the leader of the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP), elected on February 7, 2026. He served as Minister of Justice from August 2022 to June 2023. His leadership is pivotal for BSP's strategy in the upcoming presidential election.

About Atanas Atanasov

Atanas Atanasov is a Bulgarian politician and activist, currently serving as a Member of the Haskovo City Council since November 2023. He previously held the position of Minister of Culture from December 2021 to August 2022 in the Petkov Government. His experience in government and local politics makes him a relevant candidate in the Bulgaria Presidential Election.
Leader

Nikolai Denkov

19.5% avg