Live prediction market odds for CA-01 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-11-03
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the CA-01 House race set for November 3, 2026. This election is crucial as it could influence the balance of power in Congress and reflect voter sentiment on key issues in the region.
Democratic Party leads the “CA-01 House winner” event at 93.5% implied probability, followed by Republican Party at 5.7%. A 3.9% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Odds are influenced by candidate popularity, campaign funding, and local issues affecting voters. Polling data and endorsements also play a significant role in shaping market perceptions.
The outcome could shift the majority in the House of Representatives, affecting legislative priorities and governance. It also serves as a barometer for broader political trends leading into the next election cycle.
The election is scheduled for November 3, 2026. This timing aligns with the general election, where multiple federal and state offices will be contested.
CA-01 House winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Democratic Party leads at 93% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Republican Party at 6%.
Democratic Party currently leads at 93% implied probability. Behind Democratic Party, Republican Party at 6% are the next closest contenders. The 3.9% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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As seen on Financial Times, Guardian and Polymark.et
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Democratic Party
93.5% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf the House member sworn in for CA-01 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
