Live prediction market odds for CA-02 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-11-03
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the CA-02 House race set for November 3, 2026. This election is pivotal as it could influence the balance of power in Congress and reflect broader political trends in California.
Democratic Party leads the “CA-02 House winner” event at 94.3% implied probability, followed by Republican Party at 48.6%. A 89.7% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Key factors include candidate popularity, campaign funding, and voter turnout. Additionally, local issues and national political trends will play a significant role.
Prediction markets aggregate bets from participants, reflecting their expectations about the outcome. Prices fluctuate based on new information, such as polls and debates.
The outcome could shift the majority in the House of Representatives, impacting legislative priorities. It also serves as a barometer for voter sentiment in California leading up to the 2026 elections.
CA-02 House winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Democratic Party leads at 94% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Republican Party at 49%.
Democratic Party currently leads at 94% implied probability. Behind Democratic Party, Republican Party at 49% are the next closest contenders. The 89.7% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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As seen on Financial Times, Guardian and Polymark.et
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Democratic Party
94.3% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf the House member sworn in for CA-02 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
