Live prediction market odds for CA-03 primary: Who will advance?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket and PredictIt.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket / PredictIt
Resolved 2026-06-02
This market resolved on 2026-06-02. Ami Bera was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 97%.
Prediction markets on Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt are tracking the CA-03 primary to determine which candidates will advance. This primary is crucial as it shapes the electoral landscape for the upcoming general election, influencing party dynamics and voter engagement in the region.
| Candidate |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
Ami BeraWINNER | 100% | 97% | 50% |
Robb Tucker | 100% | 94% | 50% |
Heidi Hall | 1% |
The CA-03 primary plays a vital role in determining which candidates will represent their parties in the general election. It can influence voter turnout and party strategies in a key electoral district.
Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of which candidates will advance. Prices reflect collective beliefs about candidate viability and potential outcomes.
Odds are influenced by polling data, candidate fundraising, endorsements, and campaign activities. Changes in public sentiment and political events can also significantly impact market prices.
CA-03 primary: Who will advance was a prediction market event tracked across 3 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt). Ami Bera led the market at 82% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Robb Tucker at 81%, Heidi Hall at 3%, Christine Bish at 5%.
Ami Bera held the lead at 82% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Ami Bera, Robb Tucker at 81% and Heidi Hall at 3% and Christine Bish at 5% were the next closest contenders. The 49.8% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Ami Bera
82.1% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf Ami Bera advances in the 2026 CA-03 primary, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the advancing candidates. See full rules for details.
| 5% |
| — |
Christine Bish | 7% | 4% | — |
Laura Koscki | 1% | 3% | — |
Chris Bennett | 1% | 2% | — |
Christopher Bennett | 1% | 2% | — |
Chris Richardson | 1% | 1% | — |
Lyndon Cervantes | 1% | 1% | — |
