Live prediction market odds for CA-04 primary advancers?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-06-02
This market resolved on 2026-06-02. Mike Thompson was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 98%.
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the CA-04 primary advancers ahead of the June 2026 election. As candidates vie for position, shifts in voter sentiment and campaign strategies will influence the odds significantly.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Mike ThompsonWINNER | 99% | 96% |
Eric Jones | 67% | 45% |
Laurie MacKenzie | 1% | 3% |
Sharon Brown |
Polling data, candidate endorsements, and campaign funding are key factors that impact the odds. Additionally, public debates and voter engagement can shift perceptions and influence market predictions.
Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of election outcomes. Prices reflect the collective beliefs about which candidates will advance in the primary.
The CA-04 primary is crucial as it determines which candidates will represent their party in the general election. Outcomes can affect party dynamics and strategies leading up to the election.
CA-04 primary advancers was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Mike Thompson led the market at 98% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Eric Jones at 56%, Laurie MacKenzie at 2%, Sharon Brown at 1%.
Mike Thompson held the lead at 98% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Mike Thompson, Eric Jones at 56% and Laurie MacKenzie at 2% and Sharon Brown at 1% were the next closest contenders. The 21.4% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Sharon Brown advances in the 2026 CA-04 primary in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
PolymarketThis market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
| 2% |
Mandy Ghusar | 1% | 1% |
Heath Fulkerson | 1% | 0% |
Mike Thompson
97.7% avg
