Live prediction market odds for CA-06 primary: Who will advance?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket and PredictIt.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket / PredictIt
Resolved 2026-06-02
This market resolved on 2026-06-02. Kevin Kiley was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 98%.
Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt are tracking the CA-06 primary to determine which candidates will advance. This primary is crucial as it shapes the electoral landscape and influences party dynamics ahead of the general election.
| Candidate |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
Kevin KileyWINNER | 99% | 98% | 50% |
Richard Pan | 99% | 78% | — |
Thien Ho | 1% |
The CA-06 primary is a key event in the electoral calendar that can determine party nominations. It influences candidate strategies and voter mobilization leading up to the general election.
Prediction markets aggregate the opinions of participants, reflecting their expectations about candidates' chances. As new information emerges, such as polling data or endorsements, odds can shift significantly.
Factors influencing the odds include candidate fundraising, public appearances, and media coverage. Additionally, shifts in voter sentiment and demographic changes in the district can impact market predictions.
CA-06 primary: Who will advance was a prediction market event tracked across 3 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt). Kevin Kiley led the market at 82% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Richard Pan at 89%, Thien Ho at 23%, Martha Guerrero at 18%.
Kevin Kiley held the lead at 82% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Kevin Kiley, Richard Pan at 89% and Thien Ho at 23% and Martha Guerrero at 18% were the next closest contenders. The 50.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Kevin Kiley
82.0% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf Lauren Babb Tomlinson advances in the 2026 CA-06 primary, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the advancing candidates. See full rules for details.
| 46% |
| — |
Martha Guerrero | 0% | 3% | 50% |
Michael Stansfield | 0% | 16% | — |
Lauren Babb Tomlinson | 0% | 3% | — |
Tyler Vandenberg | 0% | 3% | — |
