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ARBITRAGE_ACTIVE // SPREAD: 50.0% // +$4995.00

Live prediction market odds for CA-06 primary: Who will advance?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket and PredictIt.

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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket / PredictIt

Kevin Kiley Wins: CA-06 primary: Who will advance?

Resolved 2026-06-02

This market resolved on 2026-06-02. Kevin Kiley was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 98%.

About This Market

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Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt are tracking the CA-06 primary to determine which candidates will advance. This primary is crucial as it shapes the electoral landscape and influences party dynamics ahead of the general election.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
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Final Closing Odds

3 platforms
Candidate
Kalshi
Polymarket
PredictIt
Kevin KileyWINNER
99%98%50%
Richard Pan
99%78%—
Thien Ho
1%

Candidate Spotlight

About Kevin Kiley

Kevin Kiley is an Independent member of the U.S. House of Representatives for California's 3rd Congressional District. He previously served as a Republican in the California State Assembly from 2016 to 2022 and was a Deputy Attorney General in the California Department of Justice from 2015 to 2016. Kiley has a history of advocating for workers' rights and education reform, including leading efforts to overturn the Department of Labor's independent contractor ruling and chairing the Subcommittee on Early Childhood, Elementary, and Secondary Education.

About Richard Pan

Richard Pan is a former California State Senator who represented the 6th District from 2014 to 2022. He is a practicing pediatrician and professor at the University of California, Davis. Pan is recognized for his leadership in public health and education, including chairing the Assembly Committee on Health and serving as chair of the California Asian American & Pacific Islander Legislative Caucus.

About Thien Ho

Thien Ho is the District Attorney of Sacramento County, California, a position he has held since January 2023. Prior to this, he served as Assistant Chief Deputy District Attorney and was instrumental in prosecuting the Golden State Killer. His extensive experience in the District Attorney's office since 2004 underscores his deep commitment to public safety and justice.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the significance of the CA-06 primary?

The CA-06 primary is a key event in the electoral calendar that can determine party nominations. It influences candidate strategies and voter mobilization leading up to the general election.

How do prediction markets reflect public sentiment about candidates?

Prediction markets aggregate the opinions of participants, reflecting their expectations about candidates' chances. As new information emerges, such as polling data or endorsements, odds can shift significantly.

What factors can affect the odds in the CA-06 primary markets?

Factors influencing the odds include candidate fundraising, public appearances, and media coverage. Additionally, shifts in voter sentiment and demographic changes in the district can impact market predictions.

What was "CA-06 primary: Who will advance?" and why did it matter?

CA-06 primary: Who will advance was a prediction market event tracked across 3 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt). Kevin Kiley led the market at 82% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Richard Pan at 89%, Thien Ho at 23%, Martha Guerrero at 18%.

What moved the odds on "CA-06 primary: Who will advance?"?

Kevin Kiley held the lead at 82% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Kevin Kiley, Richard Pan at 89% and Thien Ho at 23% and Martha Guerrero at 18% were the next closest contenders. The 50.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread50.0%
Platforms3
Candidates7
Winner

Kevin Kiley

82.0% avg

Market Rulebook: CA-06 primary: Who will advance?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Lauren Babb Tomlinson advances in the 2026 CA-06 primary, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the advancing candidates. See full rules for details.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?
46%
—
Martha Guerrero
0%3%50%
Michael Stansfield
0%16%—
Lauren Babb Tomlinson
0%3%—
Tyler Vandenberg
0%3%—

About Martha Guerrero

Martha Guerrero is the current mayor of West Sacramento, California, serving since December 2020. She was the city's first female mayor and has focused on community engagement and urban development. Her leadership and commitment to local governance make her a significant figure in California politics.

About Lauren Babb Tomlinson

Lauren Babb Tomlinson is a candidate for California's 6th Congressional District in the 2026 primary election. She has over a decade of experience in social justice advocacy, including leadership roles at Planned Parenthood Mar Monte. Her extensive background in women's health and social justice positions her as a strong contender in this race.

About Tyler Vandenberg

Tyler Vandenberg is a Democratic candidate for California's 6th Congressional District in the 2026 U.S. House elections. He served seven years in the U.S. Marine Corps, including time as a reservist, and won multiple games on 'Jeopardy!'. His campaign focuses on holding the GOP accountable, rebuilding infrastructure, and enhancing safety for immigrant, women, and LGBTQ+ communities.