Live prediction market odds for CA-09 primary: Who will advance?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-06-02
This market resolved on 2026-06-02. Josh Harder was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 100%.
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the CA-09 primary, focusing on which candidates will advance to the next stage. This primary is crucial as it could shape the Democratic representation in the upcoming general election, influencing party dynamics and voter turnout.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Josh HarderWINNER | 100% | 99% |
John McBride | 91% | 90% |
Khalid Jeffrey Jafri | 9% | 48% |
Parminder "Happy" Singh |
The CA-09 primary is essential for determining which candidates will represent the Democratic Party in the general election. The outcome can influence party strategies and voter engagement.
Prediction markets aggregate real-time data and sentiment, providing insights into which candidates are favored to advance. Changes in odds can indicate shifts in public perception and campaign momentum.
Factors such as candidate debates, endorsements, and voter turnout will play a critical role in shaping the primary's outcome. Additionally, local issues and demographics may impact voter preferences.
CA-09 primary: Who will advance was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Josh Harder led the market at 100% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include John McBride at 91%, Khalid Jeffrey Jafri at 29%, Parminder "Happy" Singh at 20%.
Josh Harder held the lead at 100% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Josh Harder, John McBride at 91% and Khalid Jeffrey Jafri at 29% and Parminder "Happy" Singh at 20% were the next closest contenders. The 39.2% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Josh Harder
99.6% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf Josh Harder advances in the 2026 CA-09 primary, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the advancing candidates. See full rules for details.
| 14% |
| 26% |
Martin "Vmann" Veprauskas | 2% | 2% |
