Live prediction market odds for CA-11 primary: first place. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-06-02
Scott Wiener leads the “CA-11 primary: first place” event at 93.5% implied probability. Other contenders include Saikat Chakrabarti (4.8%), Connie Chan (0.3%), David Ganezer (0.1%), and Jingchao Xiong (0.1%). A 2.7% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
CA-11 primary: first place is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Scott Wiener leads at 94% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Saikat Chakrabarti at 5%, Connie Chan at 0%, David Ganezer at 0%.
Scott Wiener currently leads at 94% implied probability. Behind Scott Wiener, Saikat Chakrabarti at 5% and Connie Chan at 0% and David Ganezer at 0% are the next closest contenders. A 2.7% spread across platforms indicated moderate disagreement on the latest developments.
Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Scott Wiener: 94¢ on Kalshi, 93¢ on Polymarket. Saikat Chakrabarti: 4¢ on Kalshi, 6¢ on Polymarket. Connie Chan: 0¢ on Kalshi, 1¢ on Polymarket. David Ganezer: 0¢ on Kalshi, 0¢ on Polymarket. The 2.7% spread shows moderate platform divergence worth monitoring for potential opportunities.
A price of 94¢ means the market estimates a 94% probability that Scott Wiener will be the outcome. Buying one share at 94¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 6% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Saikat Chakrabarti wins the the 2026 CA-11 primary, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market resolves to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary.
PolymarketThis market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Scott Wiener
93.5% avg
