Live prediction market odds for CA-12 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-11-03
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the CA-12 House election scheduled for November 3, 2026. This race is pivotal as it could influence the balance of power in Congress and reflect voter sentiment on key issues leading up to the election.
Democratic Party leads the “CA-12 House winner” event at 51.5% implied probability, followed by Republican Party at 4.5%. A 93.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Factors include candidate popularity, campaign funding, and recent polling data. Local issues and national trends also play a crucial role in shaping voter preferences.
The outcome can shift the balance of power in Congress, affecting legislative priorities and governance. It also serves as a bellwether for broader electoral trends in the state.
Prediction markets provide insights into the likelihood of various outcomes based on real-time betting behavior. They reflect the collective sentiment and analysis of participants regarding the election's dynamics.
CA-12 House winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Democratic Party leads at 52% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Republican Party at 4%.
Democratic Party currently leads at 52% implied probability. Behind Democratic Party, Republican Party at 4% are the next closest contenders. The 93.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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As seen on Financial Times, Guardian and Polymark.et
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Democratic Party
51.5% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf the House member sworn in for CA-12 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
