Live prediction market odds for CA-13 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-11-04
Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the CA-13 House race. This election outcome will influence the balance of power in Congress and reflect voter sentiment on key local issues leading up to the 2026 elections.
Democratic Party leads the “CA-13 House winner” event at 53.3% implied probability, followed by Republican Party at 12.6%. A 67.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Odds are influenced by candidate popularity, fundraising efforts, and polling data. Local issues and national trends also play a significant role.
The winner will contribute to the overall composition of the House of Representatives. A shift in party control can impact legislative priorities and governance.
The election for the CA-13 House seat is scheduled for November 4, 2026. This timing aligns with the general election cycle in the United States.
CA-13 House winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Democratic Party leads at 53% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Republican Party at 13%.
Democratic Party currently leads at 53% implied probability. Behind Democratic Party, Republican Party at 13% are the next closest contenders. The 67.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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As seen on Financial Times, Guardian and Polymark.et
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Democratic Party
53.3% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf the House member sworn in for CA-13 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of Republican, then the market resolves to Yes.
