Live prediction market odds for CA-13 primary: Who will advance?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-06-02
This market resolved on 2026-06-02. Adam Gray was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 98%.
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the CA-13 primary, focusing on which candidates will advance to the next stage. This primary is crucial as it will shape the Democratic representation in the upcoming general election, influencing party dynamics and voter turnout.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Adam GrayWINNER | 100% | 97% |
Kevin Lincoln | 95% | 97% |
Kevin Lincoln II | 95% | 97% |
Vin Kruttiventi |
The CA-13 primary is significant as it determines which candidates will represent the Democratic Party in the general election. The outcome can influence party strategies and voter engagement in the district.
Prediction markets aggregate real-time odds based on various factors such as candidate popularity, fundraising efforts, and polling data. These odds can fluctuate as new information emerges, reflecting the evolving political landscape.
Factors influencing the odds include candidate debates, endorsements, and shifts in voter sentiment. Additionally, local issues and national trends can impact how candidates are perceived by the electorate.
CA-13 primary: Who will advance was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Adam Gray led the market at 98% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Kevin Lincoln at 96%, Kevin Lincoln II at 96%, Vin Kruttiventi at 2%.
Adam Gray held the lead at 98% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Adam Gray, Kevin Lincoln at 96% and Kevin Lincoln II at 96% and Vin Kruttiventi at 2% were the next closest contenders. The 4.3% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Adam Gray
98.4% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf Adam Gray advances in the 2026 CA-13 primary, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the advancing candidates. See full rules for details.
| 4% |
Daniel Garibay Rodriguez | 0% | 2% |
