Live prediction market odds for CA-22 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-11-04
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the CA-22 House race. This election is pivotal as it could influence the balance of power in Congress, impacting key legislation and governance strategies.
Democratic Party leads the “CA-22 House winner” event at 55.8% implied probability, followed by Republican Party at 45.8%. A 30.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Factors include candidate popularity, campaign funding, voter turnout, and polling data. Local issues and national trends can also sway public opinion leading up to the election.
The election is scheduled for November 4, 2026. This timing aligns with the general election cycle in the United States.
Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of election outcomes. Prices reflect the collective belief of participants about the likelihood of each candidate winning.
CA-22 House winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Democratic Party leads at 56% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Republican Party at 46%.
Democratic Party currently leads at 56% implied probability. Behind Democratic Party, Republican Party at 46% are the next closest contenders. The 30.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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As seen on Financial Times, Guardian and Polymark.et
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Democratic Party
55.8% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf the House member sworn in for CA-22 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of Democratic, then the market resolves to Yes.
