Live prediction market odds for CA-26 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-11-03
Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the CA-26 House race. This election is pivotal as it could influence the balance of power in Congress, depending on voter turnout and campaign dynamics leading up to November 2026.
Democratic Party leads the “CA-26 House winner” event at 71.5% implied probability, followed by Republican Party at 5.0%. A 44.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Key factors include candidate popularity, fundraising efforts, and local issues that resonate with voters. Polling data and endorsements can also shift market perceptions.
The election is scheduled for November 3, 2026. This timing places it during a midterm election cycle, which often sees varying voter turnout compared to presidential elections.
Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of election outcomes. Prices reflect the collective beliefs of traders about which candidates are likely to win.
CA-26 House winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Democratic Party leads at 72% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Republican Party at 5%.
Democratic Party currently leads at 72% implied probability. Behind Democratic Party, Republican Party at 5% are the next closest contenders. The 44.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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As seen on Financial Times, Guardian and Polymark.et
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Democratic Party
71.5% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf the House member sworn in for CA-26 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
