Live prediction market odds for CA-38 primary: Who will advance?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket and PredictIt.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket / PredictIt
Resolved 2026-06-02
This market resolved on 2026-06-02. Hilda Solis was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 99%.
Prediction markets on Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt are tracking the CA-38 primary to determine which candidates will advance. This primary is crucial as it will shape the political landscape in California and influence the broader electoral strategies for the upcoming general election.
| Candidate |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
Hilda SolisWINNER | 99% | 99% | 99% |
Pedro Antonio Casas | 99% | 92% | — |
Monica Sánchez | 1% |
The CA-38 primary is significant as it determines which candidates will represent their party in the general election. The outcome can influence party dynamics and voter turnout in California.
Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of outcomes. Prices reflect the collective beliefs about which candidates are likely to advance.
Odds in the CA-38 primary markets are influenced by polling data, candidate fundraising, endorsements, and campaign strategies. Changes in public sentiment and media coverage can also impact market dynamics.
CA-38 primary: Who will advance was a prediction market event tracked across 3 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt). Hilda Solis led the market at 99% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Pedro Antonio Casas at 96%, Monica Sánchez at 8%, Erik Lutz at 1%.
Hilda Solis held the lead at 99% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Hilda Solis, Pedro Antonio Casas at 96% and Monica Sánchez at 8% and Erik Lutz at 1% were the next closest contenders. The 14.1% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Hilda Solis
99.0% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf Pedro Casas advances in the 2026 CA-38 primary, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the advancing candidates. See full rules for details.
| 15% |
| — |
Erik Lutz | 0% | 1% | 1% |
