Live prediction market odds for CA-41 primary: Who will advance?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-06-02
This market resolved on 2026-06-02. Linda Sanchez was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 99%.
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the CA-41 primary to determine which candidates will advance to the general election. This primary is crucial as it will shape the political landscape in California and influence party dynamics ahead of the 2026 elections.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Linda SanchezWINNER | 100% | 97% |
Linda Sánchez | 100% | 97% |
Mitch Clemmons | 100% | 95% |
Hector De La Torre |
Polling data, candidate fundraising, and endorsements play significant roles in shaping the odds. Additionally, voter sentiment and demographic trends can impact candidate viability.
The primary determines which candidates will represent their parties in the general election, influencing overall party strategy. Success in the primary can also impact fundraising and support leading up to the general election.
The CA-41 primary is scheduled for June 2, 2026. This date is critical for candidates as it sets the stage for the general election later that year.
CA-41 primary: Who will advance was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Linda Sanchez led the market at 99% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Linda Sánchez at 99%, Mitch Clemmons at 97%, Hector De La Torre at 20%.
Linda Sanchez held the lead at 99% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Linda Sanchez, Linda Sánchez at 99% and Mitch Clemmons at 97% and Hector De La Torre at 20% were the next closest contenders. The 40.2% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Linda Sanchez
98.5% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf Hector De La Torre advances in the 2026 CA-41 primary, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the advancing candidates. See full rules for details.
| 0% |
| 40% |
Shonique Williams | 0% | 2% |
