Live prediction market odds for CA-45 primary: Who will advance?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket and PredictIt.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket / PredictIt
Resolved 2026-06-02
This market resolved on 2026-06-02. Derek Tran was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 99%.
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the CA-45 primary to determine which candidates will advance. This primary is crucial as it shapes the electoral landscape for the upcoming general election, influencing party dynamics and voter engagement in the region.
| Candidate |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
Derek TranWINNER | 100% | 99% | 99% |
Derek TranWINNER | 100% | 99% | 99% |
The CA-45 primary is a key event in the electoral calendar, determining which candidates will represent their parties in the general election. The outcomes can significantly impact party strategies and voter turnout.
Prediction markets aggregate the collective insights of participants, reflecting real-time sentiment about candidates' chances. This can influence public perception and campaign strategies as candidates adjust to shifting odds.
Odds can be influenced by various factors including polling data, candidate debates, fundraising efforts, and endorsements. As these elements evolve, they can lead to significant shifts in market predictions.
CA-45 primary: Who will advance was a prediction market event tracked across 3 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt). Derek Tran led the market at 99% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Derek Tran at 99%, Chuong Vo at 53%, Chuong Vo at 53%.
Derek Tran held the lead at 99% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Derek Tran, Derek Tran at 99% and Chuong Vo at 53% and Chuong Vo at 53% were the next closest contenders. The 98.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Derek Tran
99.4% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf Chi Charlie Nguyen advances in the 2026 CA-45 primary, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the advancing candidates. See full rules for details.
| 99% |
| 59% |
| 1% |
Chuong Vo | 99% | 59% | 1% |
Tom Vo | 2% | 14% | — |
Chi Charlie Nguyen | 2% | 11% | — |
Amy Phan West | 2% | 3% | — |
Mark Leonard | 2% | 2% | — |
