Live prediction market odds for CA-46 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-11-03
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the CA-46 House race set for November 3, 2026. This election will play a crucial role in determining party control in the House of Representatives, influencing legislative agendas and national policies.
Democratic Party leads the “CA-46 House winner” event at 46.5% implied probability, followed by Republican Party at 7.3%. A 81.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Polling data, candidate fundraising, and local issues can significantly affect the odds. Additionally, national political trends and voter turnout projections play a critical role.
The outcome of this race could shift the balance of power in the House of Representatives. A change in control may lead to different legislative priorities and governance strategies.
The election is scheduled for November 3, 2026, with campaigns ramping up in the months leading to the election. Key events such as debates and endorsements will shape the political landscape leading up to the vote.
CA-46 House winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Democratic Party leads at 47% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Republican Party at 7%.
Democratic Party currently leads at 47% implied probability. Behind Democratic Party, Republican Party at 7% are the next closest contenders. The 81.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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As seen on Financial Times, Guardian and Polymark.et
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Democratic Party
46.5% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf the House member sworn in for CA-46 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
