What was "Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. North Carolina Tar Heels" and why did it matter?
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. North Carolina Tar Heels was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). North Carolina led the market at 96% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Notre Dame at 4%.
What moved the odds on "Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. North Carolina Tar Heels"?
North Carolina held the lead at 96% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind North Carolina, Notre Dame at 4% were the next closest contenders. The 5.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
What were the final odds for "Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. North Carolina Tar Heels" across platforms?
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: North Carolina: 99¢ on Kalshi, 94¢ on Polymarket. Notre Dame: 1¢ on Kalshi, 7¢ on Polymarket. The 5.5% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
What did 96% odds for North Carolina mean?
A price of 96¢ meant the market estimated a 96% chance that North Carolina would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 96¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 4% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
Market Rulebook: Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. North Carolina Tar Heels
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
Kalshi
Primary Rule
If North Carolina wins the Notre Dame at North Carolina men's college basketball game originally scheduled for Jan 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Edge Cases
The following market refers to the team who wins the Notre Dame at North Carolina men's college basketball game originally scheduled for Jan 21, 2026. If this game is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled game has finished (within two weeks). If the cancelled game is not played or is rescheduled further than two weeks out, the market will resolve to a fair price for each team in accordance with the rules. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the NCAA. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
