Live prediction market odds for Arizona vs. SMU Mustangs. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-01-02
This market resolved on 2026-01-02. SMU was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 76%.
This market has resolved.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
SMUWINNER | 99% | 54% |
Arizona | 1% | 47% |
Arizona vs. SMU Mustangs was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). SMU led the market at 76% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Arizona at 24%.
SMU held the lead at 76% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind SMU, Arizona at 24% were the next closest contenders. The 45.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: SMU: 99¢ on Kalshi, 54¢ on Polymarket. Arizona: 1¢ on Kalshi, 47¢ on Polymarket. The 45.5% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 76¢ meant the market estimated a 76% chance that SMU would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 76¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 32% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
SMU
76.3% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf SMU wins the Arizona at SMU college football game originally scheduled for Jan 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the team who is the winner (or participant awarded a tie) in the Arizona at SMU college football game originally scheduled for Jan 2, 2026. If this game is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled game has finished (within two weeks). If the cancelled game is not played or is rescheduled further than two weeks out, the market will resolve to a fair price for each team in accordance with the rules. If the game is declared a tie, the market will resolve to 50/50 for both teams. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the NCAA. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
