Live prediction market odds for Michigan vs. Texas. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2025-12-31
This market resolved on 2025-12-31. Texas was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 99%.
This market has resolved.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
TexasWINNER | 99% | 100% |
Michigan | 1% | 5% |
Michigan vs. Texas was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Texas led the market at 99% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Michigan at 3%.
Texas held the lead at 99% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Texas, Michigan at 3% were the next closest contenders. The 4.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Texas: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. Michigan: 1¢ on Kalshi, 5¢ on Polymarket. The 4.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 99¢ meant the market estimated a 99% chance that Texas would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 99¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 1% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
Texas
99.5% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf Texas wins the Michigan at Texas college football game originally scheduled for Dec 31, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the team who is the winner (or participant awarded a tie) in the Michigan at Texas college football game originally scheduled for Dec 31, 2025. If this game is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled game has finished (within two weeks). If the cancelled game is not played or is rescheduled further than two weeks out, the market will resolve to a fair price for each team in accordance with the rules. If the game is declared a tie, the market will resolve to 50/50 for both teams. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the NCAA. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
