Live prediction market odds for SMU Mustangs vs. California. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2025-11-29
This market resolved on 2025-11-29. California was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 58%.
This market has resolved.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
CaliforniaWINNER | 99% | 18% |
SMU | 1% | 83% |
SMU Mustangs vs. California was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). California led the market at 58% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include SMU at 42%.
California held the lead at 58% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind California, SMU at 42% were the next closest contenders. The 81.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: California: 99¢ on Kalshi, 18¢ on Polymarket. SMU: 1¢ on Kalshi, 83¢ on Polymarket. The 81.5% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 58¢ meant the market estimated a 58% chance that California would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 58¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 72% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
California
58.3% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf SMU wins the SMU at California college football game originally scheduled for Nov 29, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the team who is the winner (or participant awarded a tie) in the SMU at California college football game originally scheduled for Nov 29, 2025. If this game is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled game has finished (within two weeks). If the cancelled game is not played or is rescheduled further than two weeks out, the market will resolve to a fair price for each team in accordance with the rules. If the game is declared a tie, the market will resolve to 50/50 for both teams. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the NCAA. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
