Question 1

What is the significance of the Colombia Presidential Election?

Accepted Answer

The Colombia Presidential Election is crucial for shaping the country's policies on economic recovery, security, and social reform. Voter sentiment and candidate platforms will significantly influence the election outcome.

Question 2

How do prediction markets reflect the Colombia Presidential Election?

Accepted Answer

Prediction markets aggregate real-time data and opinions on potential candidates, providing insights into public sentiment. Changes in odds can indicate shifts in voter preferences and campaign dynamics leading up to the election.

Question 3

What factors could influence the election results?

Accepted Answer

Key factors include economic conditions, public safety concerns, and the candidates' ability to connect with voters on pressing issues. Additionally, external influences such as international relations may also play a role in shaping voter decisions.

Question 4

What is "Colombia Presidential Election" and why does it matter?

Accepted Answer

Colombia Presidential Election is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Paloma Valencia leads at 38% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Iván Cepeda Castro at 34%, Abelardo de la Espriella at 28%.

Question 5

What is moving the odds on "Colombia Presidential Election"?

Accepted Answer

Paloma Valencia currently leads at 38% implied probability. Behind Paloma Valencia, Iván Cepeda Castro at 34% and Abelardo de la Espriella at 28% are the next closest contenders. The 4.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

Question 6

What are the current odds for "Colombia Presidential Election" across platforms?

Accepted Answer

Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Paloma Valencia: 40¢ on Kalshi, 36¢ on Polymarket. Iván Cepeda Castro: 34¢ on Kalshi, 35¢ on Polymarket. Abelardo de la Espriella: 29¢ on Kalshi, 28¢ on Polymarket. The 4.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.

Question 7

What does it mean that Paloma Valencia is at 38%?

Accepted Answer

A price of 38¢ means the market estimates a 38% probability that Paloma Valencia will be the outcome. Buying one share at 38¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 163% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	39.5%	39¢	40¢	60¢	61¢
Polymarket	36.0%	36¢	36¢	64¢	64¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	33.5%	33¢	34¢	66¢	67¢
Polymarket	34.5%	34¢	35¢	65¢	66¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	29.5%	29¢	30¢	70¢	71¢
Polymarket	27.5%	27¢	28¢	72¢	73¢

Colombia Presidential Election

About This Market

Price History

Live Markets

Candidate Spotlight

About Paloma Valencia

About Iván Cepeda Castro

About Abelardo de la Espriella

Frequently Asked Questions

Smart Trade Router

Resolution Oracles

Market Rulebook: Colombia Presidential Election