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ARBITRAGE_ACTIVE // SPREAD: 3.5% // +$350.00

Live prediction market odds for Colombia Presidential Election. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket and Predict.fun.

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Kalshi / Polymarket / Predict.fun

Colombia Presidential Election

2026-06-21

About This Market

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Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the Colombia Presidential Election scheduled for June 21, 2026. This election will determine the country's leadership amid ongoing economic challenges and social issues, making it a pivotal moment for Colombia's future direction.

Abelardo de la Espriella leads the “Colombia Presidential Election” event at 84.2% implied probability. Other contenders include Iván Cepeda Castro (16.7%), and Paloma Valencia (0.1%). A 3.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
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Abelardo de la EspriellaARB
84% Avg
Kalshi86¢
Polymarket84¢
Predict.fun83¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
85.5%85¢86¢14¢15¢
PolymarketPolymarket
83.5%83¢84¢16¢17¢
Predict.funPredict.fun
83.0%83¢83¢17¢17¢
IC
Iván Cepeda CastroARB
17% Avg
Kalshi16¢
Polymarket19¢
Predict.fun17¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
15.5%15¢16¢84¢85¢
PolymarketPolymarket
18.5%18¢19¢81¢82¢
Predict.funPredict.fun
17.0%17¢17¢83¢84¢
PV
Paloma Valencia
25% Avg
Kalshi100¢
Predict.fun0¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
50.0%0¢100¢0¢100¢
Predict.funPredict.fun
0.0%0¢0¢100¢100¢

Candidate Spotlight

About Abelardo de la Espriella

Abelardo de la Espriella is a Colombian lawyer and businessman, currently a candidate in the 2026 presidential election. He is known for defending high-profile cases, including those of Álex Saab and David Murcia Guzmán. His candidacy is relevant to this prediction market as he represents a right-wing alternative in Colombia's political landscape.

About Iván Cepeda Castro

Iván Cepeda Castro is a Colombian senator and the presidential candidate of the Historic Pact for the 2026 elections. He won the Historic Pact's primary on October 26, 2025, securing 64.02% of the vote. His candidacy is significant in the Colombia Presidential Election prediction market.

About Paloma Valencia

Paloma Valencia is a Colombian senator and the Centro Democrático's candidate for the 2026 presidential election. She was selected as the party's nominee on December 15, 2025, after internal party studies. Her candidacy is significant in the context of Colombia's upcoming presidential election.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the significance of the Colombia Presidential Election?

The Colombia Presidential Election is crucial for shaping the country's policies on economic recovery, security, and social reform. Voter sentiment and candidate platforms will significantly influence the election outcome.

How do prediction markets reflect the Colombia Presidential Election?

Prediction markets aggregate real-time data and opinions on potential candidates, providing insights into public sentiment. Changes in odds can indicate shifts in voter preferences and campaign dynamics leading up to the election.

What factors could influence the election results?

Key factors include economic conditions, public safety concerns, and the candidates' ability to connect with voters on pressing issues. Additionally, external influences such as international relations may also play a role in shaping voter decisions.

What is "Colombia Presidential Election" and why does it matter?

Colombia Presidential Election is a prediction market event currently tracked across 3 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket, Predict.fun). Abelardo de la Espriella leads at 84% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Iván Cepeda Castro at 17%, Paloma Valencia at 0%.

What is moving the odds on "Colombia Presidential Election"?

Abelardo de la Espriella currently leads at 84% implied probability. Behind Abelardo de la Espriella, Iván Cepeda Castro at 17% and Paloma Valencia at 0% are the next closest contenders. The 3.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic Oracleregistraduria.gov.coConsensus of Sources
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread3.5%
Platforms3

Market Rulebook: Colombia Presidential Election

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket and Predict.fun.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the winner of the next Colombian presidential election scheduled to be held in || Year || (at the latest) is Abelardo de la Espriella, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

For presidential elections, the relevant question is whether the person wins the election, regardless of their partisan affiliation. For legislative elections, the relevant question is whether the party or alliance wins more seats than any other party or alliance.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).

Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic Oracleregistraduria.gov.coConsensus of Sources
Predict.funPredict.fun
Primary Rule

{'description': 'Colombia\'s presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.\n\nThis market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. \n\nThis market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn\'t known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia\'s National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).\n\nCreated At: 2026-03-02T12:54:53.932966559Z'}

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Candidates3
Leader

Abelardo de la Espriella

84.2% avg

Smart Money Positioning (24 hours)
Full Feed
Abelardo de la Espriella
Yes-$1.2K · 2 whales
Iván Cepeda Castro
No$106 · 1 whale

$50K+ lifetime-profit wallets · 24h net flow

Smart Money Feed
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Live tracking of high-volume trades from historically profitable accounts.

PolymarketWill Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
SELLYes@ 84¢$249K PnL
Stake$500.00
18h ago
PolymarketWill Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
SELLYes@ 84¢$249K PnL
Stake$677.04
21h ago
PolymarketWill Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
BUYNo@ 83¢$69K PnL
Payout$1,205
Stake$1,000.00
1d ago