Question 1

What is the significance of the Colorado Democratic Senate Primary?

Accepted Answer

The primary will decide which Democratic candidate advances to the general election for the Senate seat. This outcome can shape the party's strategy and influence key legislative issues.

Question 2

How do prediction markets reflect the candidates' chances?

Accepted Answer

Prediction markets aggregate real-time data and sentiment about candidates, adjusting odds based on polling, endorsements, and public opinion. This provides insights into which candidates are favored to win.

Question 3

What factors could influence the odds leading up to the primary?

Accepted Answer

Polling results, candidate debates, and campaign funding can all impact the odds in the lead-up to the primary. Additionally, shifts in voter sentiment and current events may also play a role.

Question 4

What is "Colorado Democratic Senate Primary Winner" and why does it matter?

Accepted Answer

Colorado Democratic Senate Primary Winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). John Hickenlooper leads at 85% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Karen Breslin at 20%, Julie Gonzales at 13%, Nichole Miner at 5%.

Question 5

What is moving the odds on "Colorado Democratic Senate Primary Winner"?

Accepted Answer

John Hickenlooper currently leads at 85% implied probability. Behind John Hickenlooper, Karen Breslin at 20% and Julie Gonzales at 13% and Nichole Miner at 5% are the next closest contenders. The 39.9% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

Question 6

What are the current odds for "Colorado Democratic Senate Primary Winner" across platforms?

Accepted Answer

Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: John Hickenlooper: 86¢ on Kalshi, 85¢ on Polymarket. Karen Breslin: 0¢ on Kalshi, 40¢ on Polymarket. Julie Gonzales: 14¢ on Kalshi, 12¢ on Polymarket. Nichole Miner: 0¢ on Kalshi, 10¢ on Polymarket. The 39.9% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.

Question 7

What does it mean that John Hickenlooper is at 85%?

Accepted Answer

A price of 85¢ means the market estimates a 85% probability that John Hickenlooper will be the outcome. Buying one share at 85¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 18% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	85.5%	84¢	87¢	13¢	16¢
Polymarket	87.0%	85¢	89¢	11¢	15¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	1.0%	0¢	2¢	99¢	100¢
Polymarket	40.0%	20¢	60¢	40¢	80¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	13.0%	12¢	14¢	86¢	88¢
Polymarket	11.0%	9¢	13¢	87¢	91¢

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	0.5%	0¢	1¢	99¢	100¢
Polymarket	15.0%	10¢	20¢	80¢	90¢

Colorado Democratic Senate Primary Winner

About This Market

Price History

Live Markets

Candidate Spotlight

About John Hickenlooper

About Julie Gonzales

Frequently Asked Questions

Smart Trade Router

Resolution Oracles

Market Rulebook: Colorado Democratic Senate Primary Winner