Live prediction market odds for Costa Rica Legislative Assembly Election Winner. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
Updated May 14, 12:32 PM EDT
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the Costa Rica Legislative Assembly election. This election is pivotal as it will determine the composition of the legislative body and influence future policy decisions in the country.
PPSO is priced at 99.5% implied probability for the “Costa Rica Legislative Assembly Election Winner” event. Platforms are tightly aligned at a 1.0% spread.
The election will decide the members of the Legislative Assembly, which plays a crucial role in shaping national policies. The outcome can affect governance and legislative priorities for the coming years.
Prediction markets aggregate the collective insights of participants, reflecting their expectations about election results. Changes in odds can indicate shifts in public sentiment or new information that impacts voter behavior.
Polling data, candidate campaigns, and public debates can all influence market odds. Additionally, any major news events or political developments in Costa Rica leading up to the election may also sway predictions.
Costa Rica Legislative Assembly Election Winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). PPSO leads at 100% implied probability, making it the market favorite.
PPSO currently leads at 100% implied probability. Platforms were tightly aligned at a 1.0% spread, suggesting broad consensus on the odds.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf the winner of the next Costa Rican general election expected to be held in 2026 at the latest is PPSO, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority. For a parliamentary election, the winner is the party or formal pre-election coalition that wins the most seats in the specified chamber, even if they do not form the government. If there is a tie for the most seats, the winner is the party that enters government; if that doesn't resolve the tie, the winner is the party with the higher share of the vote. If an election is postponed, the contract remains open until the new date, for a maximum of two years. Contested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction.
PolymarketParliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Costa Rica on 1 February 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Costa Rican Legislative Assembly. If voting in the Costa Rican Legislative Assembly election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats won, this market will be resolved in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Legislative Assembly. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Costa Rica's Supreme Electoral Tribunal (Tribunal Supremo de Elecciones) (https://www.tse.go.cr/index.html).
PPSO
99.5% avg
