Live prediction market odds for Costa Rica Presidential Election. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
Updated May 14, 12:25 PM EDT
Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the Costa Rica Presidential Election. The outcome will influence the country's policies and international relations, making it a focal point for both domestic and foreign stakeholders.
Laura Virginia Fernández Delgado is priced at 99.5% implied probability for the “Costa Rica Presidential Election” event. Platforms are tightly aligned at a 1.0% spread.
The election will determine the next leader of Costa Rica, influencing national policies on issues such as the economy, environment, and healthcare. Additionally, the outcome may affect the country's diplomatic relations with other nations.
Prediction markets aggregate real-time data from participants who wager on the election outcomes, reflecting the collective sentiment and expectations. Changes in odds can indicate shifts in public opinion or reactions to campaign developments.
Key factors include voter turnout, campaign strategies, and current events affecting public perception of candidates. Economic conditions and social issues may also play a significant role in shaping voter decisions.
Costa Rica Presidential Election is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Laura Virginia Fernández Delgado leads at 100% implied probability, making it the market favorite.
Laura Virginia Fernández Delgado currently leads at 100% implied probability. Platforms were tightly aligned at a 1.0% spread, suggesting broad consensus on the odds.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf the winner of the next Costa Rican presidential election expected to be held in 2026 at the latest is Laura Fernandez, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority. For a presidential or other direct election, the winner is the candidate who is officially declared elected by that authority and is subsequently sworn in, or whose inauguration date passes without a different person taking office. The market will resolve for that candidate even if they die or are incapacitated after the election but before taking office. If an election is postponed, the contract remains open until the new date, for a maximum of two years. Contested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction.
PolymarketThe 2026 Costa Rican general election is scheduled for February 1, 2026. The President of Costa Rica is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 40% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tribunal Supremo de Elecciones (https://www.tse.go.cr/index.html).
Laura Virginia Fernández Delgado
99.5% avg
