Live prediction market odds for Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas in 2026?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket and PredictIt.
Join our Discord for breaking news alerts, driven by real-time movements in prediction markets.
MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket / PredictIt
Resolved 2026-05-01
This market resolved on 2026-05-01. James Talarico was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 99%.
Prediction markets on Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt are tracking the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas in 2026. This race is crucial as it could impact the balance of power in the Senate and reflects broader trends in voter sentiment and party strategy leading up to the election.
| Candidate |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
James TalaricoWINNER | 99% | 100% | 99% |
Beto O'Rourke | 1% | 50% | 1% |
Colin Allred | 1% |
Polling data, endorsements, and campaign funding play significant roles in shaping the odds. Additionally, shifts in voter demographics and national political trends can impact candidate viability.
Prediction markets aggregate the collective opinions of participants, reflecting their expectations about future events. Prices fluctuate based on new information, such as candidate announcements and public opinion shifts.
Winning the Texas Senate seat could enhance the Democratic Party's influence in Congress. It also serves as a bellwether for the party's appeal in traditionally Republican-leaning states.
Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas in 2026 was a prediction market event tracked across 3 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt). James Talarico led the market at 99% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Beto O'Rourke at 17%, Colin Allred at 17%, Jasmine Crockett at 17%.
James Talarico held the lead at 99% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind James Talarico, Beto O'Rourke at 17% and Colin Allred at 17% and Jasmine Crockett at 17% were the next closest contenders. The 49.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Build a custom bot or arb alert system for the “Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas in 2026?” event. All for free.
As seen on Financial Times, Guardian and Polymark.et
Used by builders and traders in our 2.5K+ Discord community
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf James Talarico wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Class II Texas Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
PolymarketThis market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Texas. If no 2026 Texas Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Texas Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
| 50% |
| 1% |
Jasmine Crockett | 1% | 50% | 1% |
Terry Virts | 1% | — | 1% |
James Talarico
99.3% avg
