Live prediction market odds for Liverpool vs. Manchester United. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-05-03
Liverpool vs. Manchester United — English Premier League game scheduled for 2026-05-03. Compare live prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
Manchester United leads the “Liverpool vs. Manchester United” event at 41.0% implied probability. Other contenders include Liverpool (35.5%), and Draw (22.8%). A 3.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Liverpool vs. Manchester United is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Manchester United leads at 41% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Liverpool at 36%, Draw at 23%.
Manchester United currently leads at 41% implied probability. Behind Manchester United, Liverpool at 36% and Draw at 23% are the next closest contenders. The 3.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Manchester United: 41¢ on Kalshi, 41¢ on Polymarket. Liverpool: 35¢ on Kalshi, 37¢ on Polymarket. Draw: 21¢ on Kalshi, 25¢ on Polymarket. The 3.5% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 41¢ means the market estimates a 41% probability that Manchester United will be the outcome. Buying one share at 41¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 144% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Tie wins the Manchester United vs Liverpool professional EPL soccer game originally scheduled for May 3, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Manchester United vs Liverpool professional EPL soccer game originally scheduled for May 3, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties). If the game ends in a tie, the market called "Tie" resolves to Yes. If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to over two weeks away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules.
PolymarketIn the upcoming game, scheduled for May 3, 2026 If the game ends in a draw, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Yes". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Manchester United
41.0% avg
