Live prediction market odds for Extended FDV above ___ one day after launch?. Compare prices across Polymarket and Predict.fun.
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Polymarket / Predict.fun
2027-01-01
Predict.fun + Polymarket pair (auto-ingested via condition_id cross-ref)
$150M leads the “Extended FDV above ___ one day after launch” event at 72.9% implied probability. Other contenders include $500M (49.3%), $300M (48.3%), $800M (9.4%), and $1B (6.1%). A 48.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Extended FDV above ___ one day after launch is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Polymarket, Predict.fun). $150M leads at 73% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include $500M at 74%, $300M at 54%, $800M at 11%.
$150M currently leads at 73% implied probability. Behind $150M, $500M at 74% and $300M at 54% and $800M at 11% are the next closest contenders. The 48.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here are the latest odds across Polymarket, Predict.fun: $150M: 75¢ on Polymarket. $500M: 74¢ on Polymarket. $300M: 54¢ on Polymarket. $800M: 11¢ on Polymarket. The 48.5% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 73¢ means the market estimates a 73% probability that $150M will be the outcome. Buying one share at 73¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 37% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.
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$150M
72.9% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Predict.fun.
Predict.fun{'description': 'This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Extended\'s token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."\n\nThe token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.\n\nThe FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.\n\n"1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Extended (https://x.com/extendedapp) doesn\'t launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".'}
