Who is favored in Fed decision in April??

No change is currently favored with an average implied probability of 69.0% across 2 prediction markets.

What platforms have odds for Fed decision in April??

Fed decision in April? odds are available on Kalshi, Polymarket. Prediction Hunt compares prices across all platforms in real time.

Is there an arbitrage opportunity on Fed decision in April??

The current spread is 0.0%, indicating tight alignment across platforms with no significant arbitrage window.

Kalshi / Polymarket

Fed decision in April?

Updated Feb 25, 12:57 AM EST

Market Summary

In the latest prediction market odds for Fed decision in April?, No change leads with an average implied probability of 69.0%. Top contenders trailing the frontrunner include 25 bps decrease (26.5%), 50+ bps decrease (2.5%), 25+ bps increase (1.4%), Cut >25bps (31.0%), and Fed maintains rate (67.0%). Traders monitoring this market will find an active arbitrage window with a 0.0% spread across platforms.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities

No price history available

Live Markets

2 platforms

No change68% Avg

69¢

25 bps decrease26% Avg

27¢

50+ bps decrease2% Avg

3¢

25+ bps increase1% Avg

1¢

Cut >25bps30% Avg

31¢

Market Narrative // Why the odds are moving

Minutes from the January FOMC reveal some Fed officials discussed the possibility of raising interest rates if inflation remains above target, complicating expectations of multiple rate cuts in 2026, thus decreasing the likelihood of a Fed rate cut decision in April.. Meanwhile, thestreet.com reports: fomc minutes show officials considered raising rates again if inflation stays above 2%, and the strong january jobs report reduces confidence in upcoming rate cuts, lowering the probability of a fed decision to cut rates in april..

Additional coverage from Los Angeles Times, Investor's Business Daily suggests continued market attention. Platforms remain broadly aligned at a 0.0% spread, suggesting consensus on the impact.

Sources: Yahoo Finance / thestreet.com / Los Angeles Times / Investor's Business Daily

Market Intel

LIVE

News Catalyst

6:17 PM

Fed officials signal shocking twist on interest-rate cuts - Yahoo Finance

Yahoo Finance

News Catalyst

3:17 PM

Fed officials signal shocking twist on interest-rate cuts - thestreet.com

FOMC minutes show officials considered raising rates again if inflation stays above 2%, and the strong January jobs report reduces confidence in upcoming rate cuts, lowering the probability of a Fed decision to cut rates in April.

thestreet.com

News Catalyst

3:05 AM

Fed minutes: Lower inflation needed before many officials will support rate cuts - Los Angeles Times

Fed minutes indicate many officials want inflation to fall further before supporting additional rate cuts this year, suggesting a Fed rate cut in April is uncertain and dependent on upcoming inflation data.

Los Angeles Times

News Catalyst

1:25 PM

Fed's Key Inflation Rate Hot; GDP Growth Tumbles (Live Coverage) - Investor's Business Daily

After recent GDP and PCE data showed persistent inflation and weak growth, CME Group's FedWatch tool prices just a 20% chance of a rate cut by the April Fed meeting, indicating low odds the Fed will cut rates in April.

Investor's Business Daily

Resolution

This market resolves based on official announcements from authoritative sources. Prediction Hunt aggregates odds across platforms but does not determine outcomes. Each platform maintains its own resolution criteria — check each platform's rules before trading.

Stats

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