Live prediction market odds for Fed decision in April?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Kalshi / Polymarket
Updated Feb 25, 12:57 AM EST
Market Summary
In the latest prediction market odds for Fed decision in April?, No change leads with an average implied probability of 69.0%. Top contenders trailing the frontrunner include 25 bps decrease (26.5%), 50+ bps decrease (2.5%), 25+ bps increase (1.4%), Cut >25bps (31.0%), and Fed maintains rate (67.0%). Traders monitoring this market will find an active arbitrage window with a 0.0% spread across platforms.
Market Narrative // Why the odds are moving
Minutes from the January FOMC reveal some Fed officials discussed the possibility of raising interest rates if inflation remains above target, complicating expectations of multiple rate cuts in 2026, thus decreasing the likelihood of a Fed rate cut decision in April.. Meanwhile, thestreet.com reports: fomc minutes show officials considered raising rates again if inflation stays above 2%, and the strong january jobs report reduces confidence in upcoming rate cuts, lowering the probability of a fed decision to cut rates in april..
Additional coverage from Los Angeles Times, Investor's Business Daily suggests continued market attention. Platforms remain broadly aligned at a 0.0% spread, suggesting consensus on the impact.
Sources: Yahoo Finance / thestreet.com / Los Angeles Times / Investor's Business Daily
Resolution
This market resolves based on official announcements from authoritative sources. Prediction Hunt aggregates odds across platforms but does not determine outcomes. Each platform maintains its own resolution criteria — check each platform's rules before trading.
No change
69.0% avg