Live prediction market odds for Fed decision in April?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
Updated Apr 21, 6:07 PM EDT
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates in April. This decision will impact economic growth, inflation, and market stability, influencing investor sentiment and financial conditions.
No change leads the “Fed decision in April” event at 98.9% implied probability. Other contenders include 25 bps decrease (10.3%), and 25+ bps increase (0.4%). A 19.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
The Fed considers inflation rates, employment data, and overall economic growth when making interest rate decisions. Global economic conditions and financial market stability also play a crucial role.
Changes in interest rates can influence borrowing costs, consumer spending, and investment. Lower rates typically stimulate economic activity, while higher rates can slow it down.
The Fed could choose to increase, decrease, or maintain interest rates based on current economic indicators. Each outcome will have different implications for inflation, employment, and market reactions.
Fed decision in April is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). No change leads at 99% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include 25 bps decrease at 10%, 25+ bps increase at 0%.
No change currently leads at 99% implied probability. Behind No change, 25 bps decrease at 10% and 25+ bps increase at 0% are the next closest contenders. The 19.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Opinion and Polymarket.
KalshiIf the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on April 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for "Fed maintains rate" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.
OpinionThe FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
PolymarketThe FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
No change
98.9% avg
