Live prediction market odds for Fed decision in January?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-01-28
This market resolved on 2026-01-28. No change was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 100%.
This market has resolved.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
No changeWINNER | 99% | 100% |
Cut >25bps | 1% | 50% |
Cut 25bps | 1% | 50% |
Fed decision in January was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). No change led the market at 100% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Cut >25bps at 26%, Cut 25bps at 26%.
No change held the lead at 100% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind No change, Cut >25bps at 26% and Cut 25bps at 26% were the next closest contenders. The 49.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: No change: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. Cut >25bps: 1¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. Cut 25bps: 1¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. The 49.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 100¢ meant the market estimated a 100% chance that No change would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 100¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 0% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
No change
99.5% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on January 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for "Fed maintains rate" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.
