About This Market
SharePredict.fun + Polymarket pair (auto-ingested via condition_id cross-ref)
Fed rate hike in 2026 is priced at 12.0% implied probability for the “Fed rate hike in 2026” event. Platforms are tightly aligned at a 1.0% spread.
Live prediction market odds for Fed rate hike in 2026?. Compare prices across Polymarket and Predict.fun.
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Polymarket / Predict.fun
Fed rate hike in 2026?
2026-12-09T00:00:00+00:00
Price History
Multi-Platform ProbabilitiesNo price history available
Live Markets
2 platforms
Frequently Asked Questions
What is "Fed rate hike in 2026?" and why does it matter?
Fed rate hike in 2026 is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Polymarket, Predict.fun). Fed rate hike in 2026 leads at 12% implied probability, making it the market favorite.
What is moving the odds on "Fed rate hike in 2026?"?
Fed rate hike in 2026 currently leads at 12% implied probability. Platforms were tightly aligned at a 1.0% spread, suggesting broad consensus on the odds.
What are the current odds for "Fed rate hike in 2026?" across platforms?
Here are the latest odds across Polymarket, Predict.fun: Fed rate hike in 2026: 13¢ on Polymarket. Platforms are tightly aligned at a 1.0% spread, leaving little room for cross-platform arbitrage.
What does it mean that Fed rate hike in 2026 is at 12%?
A price of 12¢ means the market estimates a 12% probability that Fed rate hike in 2026 will be the outcome. Buying one share at 12¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 733% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.
Market Rulebook: Fed rate hike in 2026?
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Predict.fun.
Predict.funPrimary Rule
{'description': 'This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed\'s December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.'}