Live prediction market odds for Fed rate hike in 2026?. Compare prices across Polymarket and Predict.fun.
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Polymarket / Predict.fun
2026-12-09T00:00:00+00:00
Predict.fun + Polymarket pair (auto-ingested via condition_id cross-ref)
Fed rate hike in 2026 is priced at 46.3% implied probability for the “Fed rate hike in 2026” event. A 16.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Fed rate hike in 2026 is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Polymarket, Predict.fun). Fed rate hike in 2026 leads at 46% implied probability, making it the market favorite.
Fed rate hike in 2026 currently leads at 46% implied probability. The 16.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here are the latest odds across Polymarket, Predict.fun: Fed rate hike in 2026: 55¢ on Polymarket. The 16.5% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 46¢ means the market estimates a 46% probability that Fed rate hike in 2026 will be the outcome. Buying one share at 46¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 117% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.
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Fed rate hike in 2026
46.3% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Predict.fun.
Predict.fun{'description': 'This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed\'s December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.'}
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