Live prediction market odds for FIFA World Cup Group F Winner. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-06-27
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of Group F in the FIFA World Cup. The outcome will influence knockout stage matchups and national pride as teams compete on a global stage.
Netherlands leads the “FIFA World Cup Group F Winner” event at 53.5% implied probability. Other contenders include Japan (25.0%), and Tunisia (5.0%). A 2.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
FIFA World Cup Group F Winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Netherlands leads at 54% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Japan at 25%, Tunisia at 5%.
Netherlands currently leads at 54% implied probability. Behind Netherlands, Japan at 25% and Tunisia at 5% are the next closest contenders. A 2.0% spread across platforms indicated moderate disagreement on the latest developments.
Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Netherlands: 53¢ on Kalshi, 54¢ on Polymarket. Japan: 24¢ on Kalshi, 26¢ on Polymarket. Tunisia: 5¢ on Kalshi, 5¢ on Polymarket. The 2.0% spread shows moderate platform divergence worth monitoring for potential opportunities.
A price of 54¢ means the market estimates a 54% probability that Netherlands will be the outcome. Buying one share at 54¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 85% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.
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Netherlands
53.5% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf Tunisia finish first in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
If teams are tied on points, the group winner is determined according to the official FIFA World Cup tiebreak criteria. This market and these products have not been endorsed by FIFA. Any references to "FIFA", the "FIFA World Cup," or any other associated marks are descriptive only, and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between FIFA and Kalshi.
