Live prediction market odds for FIFA World Cup Group F Winner. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-06-27
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of Group F in the FIFA World Cup. The outcome will influence knockout stage matchups and national pride as teams compete on a global stage.
Japan leads the “FIFA World Cup Group F Winner” event at 25.5% implied probability. Other contenders include Netherlands (74.5%), and Tunisia (25.5%). A 49.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
FIFA World Cup Group F Winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Japan leads at 26% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Netherlands at 75%, Tunisia at 26%.
Japan currently leads at 26% implied probability. Behind Japan, Netherlands at 75% and Tunisia at 26% are the next closest contenders. The 49.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Japan: 1¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. Netherlands: 99¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. Tunisia: 1¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. The 49.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 26¢ means the market estimates a 26% probability that Japan will be the outcome. Buying one share at 26¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 285% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.
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Japan
25.5% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf Tunisia finish first in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
If teams are tied on points, the group winner is determined according to the official FIFA World Cup tiebreak criteria. This market and these products have not been endorsed by FIFA. Any references to "FIFA", the "FIFA World Cup," or any other associated marks are descriptive only, and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between FIFA and Kalshi.
Live tracking of high-volume trades from historically profitable accounts.
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