Live prediction market odds for Finals MVP Winner. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-05-12
This market resolved on 2026-05-12. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 50%.
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the Finals MVP Winner for the 2026 NBA season. This event is pivotal as it highlights individual player performances during the playoffs, influencing their legacy and market value in the league.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderWINNER | 1% | 100% |
Victor Wembanyama | 63% | 38% |
De'Aaron Fox | 1% | 99% |
Jalen Brunson |
Player statistics, team performance, and playoff outcomes significantly impact the odds. Media narratives and fan sentiment also play a role in shaping perceptions of potential MVP candidates.
The Finals MVP will be announced shortly after the conclusion of the NBA Finals, typically in mid-June. This timing allows for a complete assessment of player contributions throughout the series.
Odds in prediction markets are determined by the collective betting behavior of participants. As new information emerges, such as player injuries or standout performances, the odds can fluctuate accordingly.
Finals MVP Winner was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the market at 50% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Victor Wembanyama at 50%, De'Aaron Fox at 50%, Jalen Brunson at 32%.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander held the lead at 50% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Victor Wembanyama at 50% and De'Aaron Fox at 50% and Jalen Brunson at 32% were the next closest contenders. The 99.3% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
50.2% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf Nikola Jokic wins the Pro basketball Finals Most Valuable Player in the 2026 season, then the market resolves to Yes.
| 32% |
| 31% |
Alperen Sengun | 1% | 50% |
Bam Adebayo | 1% | 50% |
Desmond Bane | 1% | 50% |
Devin Booker | 1% | 50% |
Jalen Johnson | 1% | 50% |
Jamal Murray | 1% | 50% |
Jaylen Brown | 1% | 50% |
Kawhi Leonard | 1% | 50% |
LaMelo Ball | 1% | 50% |
LeBron James | 1% | 50% |
Luka Doncic | 1% | 50% |
Nikola Jokic | 1% | 50% |
Paolo Banchero | 1% | 50% |
Stephen Curry | 1% | 50% |
Tyrese Maxey | 1% | 50% |
Anthony Edwards | 1% | 50% |
Chet Holmgren | 1% | 50% |
James Harden | 1% | 50% |
Julius Randle | 1% | 50% |
Kevin Durant | 1% | 50% |
Karl-Anthony Towns | 5% | 5% |
Donovan Mitchell | 1% | 0% |
