Live prediction market odds for FL-02 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-11-03
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the FL-02 House race for the upcoming 2026 elections. This contest is crucial as it could influence the balance of power in Congress and reflect voter sentiment on key issues leading up to the election.
Republican Party leads the “FL-02 House winner” event at 60.8% implied probability, followed by Democratic Party at 15.3%. A 34.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Factors include candidate popularity, party support, and local issues affecting voters. Polling data and campaign strategies also play a significant role.
The outcome could shift the majority in the House of Representatives, affecting legislative priorities. It also serves as a bellwether for broader electoral trends leading into the 2026 elections.
The election is scheduled for November 3, 2026, with campaigns ramping up in the months prior. Key events such as debates and fundraising efforts will shape the race leading to the election date.
FL-02 House winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Republican Party leads at 61% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Democratic Party at 15%.
Republican Party currently leads at 61% implied probability. Behind Republican Party, Democratic Party at 15% are the next closest contenders. The 34.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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As seen on Financial Times, Guardian and Polymark.et
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Republican Party
60.8% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf the House member sworn in for FL-02 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
