Live prediction market odds for Germany: Stage of Elimination. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-07-19
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking Germany's stage of elimination in the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The performance of the national team in group matches and knockout rounds will heavily influence the odds as fans and analysts speculate on their potential success or failure in the tournament.
Round of 16 is priced at 33.3% implied probability for the “Germany: Stage of Elimination” event. A 3.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Team performance in group matches, player injuries, and historical performance in World Cups are key factors. Analysts also consider the strength of opponents and recent form leading up to the tournament.
Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of outcomes. Prices reflect the collective sentiment and probabilities of various stages of elimination.
Germany has a storied history in the World Cup, being multiple-time champions. Their performance can impact national morale and the future of coaching and player selection.
Germany: Stage of Elimination is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Round of 16 leads at 33% implied probability, making it the market favorite.
Round of 16 currently leads at 33% implied probability. The 3.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Round of 16
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Germany is eliminated in the Round of 16 in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
For the purposes of this Contract, if a team withdraws, forfeits or is disqualified at any point during the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, their stage of elimination will be determined by the farthest stage they reached prior to withdrawal, forfeit or disqualification. For example, if a team withdraws after winning their Round of 32 match, the market titled "Round of 16" will resolve to Yes since that would be the next stage where they would have been eliminated had they continued competing. Note: If a team loses in the Semifinals, the market titled "Semifinals" will resolve to Yes, regardless of whether they win the third-place match. This market and these products have not been endorsed by FIFA. Any references to "FIFA", the "FIFA World Cup," or any other associated marks are descriptive only, and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between FIFA and Kalshi.
Polymarket33.3% avg
