Live prediction market odds for Ghana: Stage of Elimination. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-07-19
Round of 32 leads the “Ghana: Stage of Elimination” event at 74.5% implied probability. Other contenders include Round of 16 (14.0%), and Semifinals (1.5%). A 6.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Ghana: Stage of Elimination is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Round of 32 leads at 75% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Round of 16 at 14%, Semifinals at 1%.
Round of 32 currently leads at 75% implied probability. Behind Round of 32, Round of 16 at 14% and Semifinals at 1% are the next closest contenders. The 6.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Round of 32: 74¢ on Kalshi, 75¢ on Polymarket. Round of 16: 17¢ on Kalshi, 11¢ on Polymarket. Semifinals: 3¢ on Kalshi, 0¢ on Polymarket. The 6.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 75¢ means the market estimates a 75% probability that Round of 32 will be the outcome. Buying one share at 75¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 33% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.
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Round of 32
74.5% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Ghana is eliminated in the Round of 32 in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
For the purposes of this Contract, if a team withdraws, forfeits or is disqualified at any point during the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, their stage of elimination will be determined by the farthest stage they reached prior to withdrawal, forfeit or disqualification. For example, if a team withdraws after winning their Round of 32 match, the market titled "Round of 16" will resolve to Yes since that would be the next stage where they would have been eliminated had they continued competing. Note: If a team loses in the Semifinals, the market titled "Semifinals" will resolve to Yes, regardless of whether they win the third-place match. This market and these products have not been endorsed by FIFA. Any references to "FIFA", the "FIFA World Cup," or any other associated marks are descriptive only, and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between FIFA and Kalshi.
Polymarket