Question 1

What was "Grammys: Best Album Notes Winner" and why did it matter?

Accepted Answer

Grammys: Best Album Notes Winner was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Miles '55: The Prestige Recordings - Miles Davis led the market at 100% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include A Ghost Is Born — 20th Anniversary Deluxe Edition - Wilco at 26%, After The Last Sky - Anouar Brahem, Anja Lechner, Django Bates, Dave Holland at 26%, The First Family: Live At Winchester Cathedral 1967 - Sly & The Family Stone at 26%.

Question 2

What moved the odds on "Grammys: Best Album Notes Winner"?

Accepted Answer

Miles '55: The Prestige Recordings - Miles Davis held the lead at 100% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Miles '55: The Prestige Recordings - Miles Davis, A Ghost Is Born — 20th Anniversary Deluxe Edition - Wilco at 26% and After The Last Sky - Anouar Brahem, Anja Lechner, Django Bates, Dave Holland at 26% and The First Family: Live At Winchester Cathedral 1967 - Sly & The Family Stone at 26% were the next closest contenders. The 50.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

Question 3

What were the final odds for "Grammys: Best Album Notes Winner" across platforms?

Accepted Answer

Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Miles '55: The Prestige Recordings - Miles Davis: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. A Ghost Is Born — 20th Anniversary Deluxe Edition - Wilco: 2¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. After The Last Sky - Anouar Brahem, Anja Lechner, Django Bates, Dave Holland: 2¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. The First Family: Live At Winchester Cathedral 1967 - Sly & The Family Stone: 2¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. The 50.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.

Question 4

What did 100% odds for Miles '55: The Prestige Recordings - Miles Davis mean?

Accepted Answer

A price of 100¢ meant the market estimated a 100% chance that Miles '55: The Prestige Recordings - Miles Davis would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 100¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 0% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.

Candidate
Miles '55: The Prestige Recordings - Miles DavisWINNER	99%	100%
A Ghost Is Born — 20th Anniversary Deluxe Edition - Wilco	2%	50%
After The Last Sky - Anouar Brahem, Anja Lechner, Django Bates, Dave Holland	2%	50%
The First Family: Live At Winchester Cathedral 1967 - Sly & The Family Stone	2%	50%
Adios, Farewell, Goodbye, Good Luck, So Long: On Stage 1964-1974 - Buck Owens And His Buckaroos	1%	50%
Árabe - Amanda Ekery	0%	50%

Miles '55: The Prestige Recordings - Miles Davis Wins: Grammys: Best Album Notes Winner

About This Market

Price History

Final Closing Odds

Frequently Asked Questions

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Market Rulebook: Grammys: Best Album Notes Winner