Live prediction market odds for Grammys: Best Arrangement, Instrumental or A Capella Winner. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Join our Discord for breaking news alerts, driven by real-time movements in prediction markets.
MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-02-01
This market resolved on 2026-02-01. Super Mario Praise Break - The 8-Bit Big Band was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 99%.
This market has resolved.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Super Mario Praise Break - The 8-Bit Big BandWINNER | 98% | 100% |
A Child Is Born - Nordkraft Big Band & Remy Le Boeuf | 1% | 50% |
Be Okay - Cynthia Erivo | 1% | 50% |
Grammys: Best Arrangement, Instrumental or A Capella Winner was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Super Mario Praise Break - The 8-Bit Big Band led the market at 99% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include A Child Is Born - Nordkraft Big Band & Remy Le Boeuf at 26%, Be Okay - Cynthia Erivo at 26%, Fight On - The Westerlies at 26%.
Super Mario Praise Break - The 8-Bit Big Band held the lead at 99% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Super Mario Praise Break - The 8-Bit Big Band, A Child Is Born - Nordkraft Big Band & Remy Le Boeuf at 26% and Be Okay - Cynthia Erivo at 26% and Fight On - The Westerlies at 26% were the next closest contenders. The 49.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Super Mario Praise Break - The 8-Bit Big Band: 98¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. A Child Is Born - Nordkraft Big Band & Remy Le Boeuf: 1¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. Be Okay - Cynthia Erivo: 1¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. Fight On - The Westerlies: 1¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. The 49.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 99¢ meant the market estimated a 99% chance that Super Mario Praise Break - The 8-Bit Big Band would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 99¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 1% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
Build a custom bot or arb alert system for the “Grammys: Best Arrangement, Instrumental or A Capella Winner” event. All for free.
As seen on Financial Times, Guardian and Polymark.et
Used by builders and traders in our 2.5K+ Discord community
Super Mario Praise Break - The 8-Bit Big Band
99.0% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf A Child Is Born has won Best Arrangement, Instrumental or A Cappella at the 68th Annual Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
**This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Recording Academy. Any references to the Recording Academy, the GRAMMY Awards, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between the Recording Academy and Kalshi.**
| 1% |
| 50% |
