Live prediction market odds for Grammys: Best Instrumental Composition Winner. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-02-01
This market resolved on 2026-02-01. First Snow was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 100%.
This market has resolved.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
First SnowWINNER | 99% | 100% |
Why You Here / Before The Sun Went Down | 2% | 50% |
Live Life This Day: Movement I | 1% | 50% |
Lord, That's A Long Way | 1% | 50% |
Opening | 1% | 50% |
Train To Emerald City | 1% | 50% |
Grammys: Best Instrumental Composition Winner was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). First Snow led the market at 100% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Why You Here / Before The Sun Went Down at 26%, Live Life This Day: Movement I at 26%, Lord, That's A Long Way at 26%.
First Snow held the lead at 100% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind First Snow, Why You Here / Before The Sun Went Down at 26% and Live Life This Day: Movement I at 26% and Lord, That's A Long Way at 26% were the next closest contenders. The 49.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: First Snow: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. Why You Here / Before The Sun Went Down: 2¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. Live Life This Day: Movement I: 1¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. Lord, That's A Long Way: 1¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. The 49.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 100¢ meant the market estimated a 100% chance that First Snow would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 100¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 0% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
First Snow
99.5% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf First Snow has won Best Instrumental Composition at the 68th Annual Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
**This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Recording Academy. Any references to the Recording Academy, the GRAMMY Awards, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between the Recording Academy and Kalshi.**
