Question 1

What was "Grammys: Best Jazz Instrumental Album Winner" and why did it matter?

Accepted Answer

Grammys: Best Jazz Instrumental Album Winner was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Southern Nights - Sullivan Fortner Featuring Peter Washington & Marcus Gilmore led the market at 100% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Spirit Fall - John Patitucci Featuring Chris Potter & Brian Blade at 30%, Belonging - Branford Marsalis Quartet at 26%, Fasten Up - Yellowjackets at 26%.

Question 2

What moved the odds on "Grammys: Best Jazz Instrumental Album Winner"?

Accepted Answer

Southern Nights - Sullivan Fortner Featuring Peter Washington & Marcus Gilmore held the lead at 100% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Southern Nights - Sullivan Fortner Featuring Peter Washington & Marcus Gilmore, Spirit Fall - John Patitucci Featuring Chris Potter & Brian Blade at 30% and Belonging - Branford Marsalis Quartet at 26% and Fasten Up - Yellowjackets at 26% were the next closest contenders. The 49.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

Question 3

What were the final odds for "Grammys: Best Jazz Instrumental Album Winner" across platforms?

Accepted Answer

Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Southern Nights - Sullivan Fortner Featuring Peter Washington & Marcus Gilmore: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. Spirit Fall - John Patitucci Featuring Chris Potter & Brian Blade: 9¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. Belonging - Branford Marsalis Quartet: 1¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. Fasten Up - Yellowjackets: 1¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. The 49.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.

Question 4

What did 100% odds for Southern Nights - Sullivan Fortner Featuring Peter Washington & Marcus Gilmore mean?

Accepted Answer

A price of 100¢ meant the market estimated a 100% chance that Southern Nights - Sullivan Fortner Featuring Peter Washington & Marcus Gilmore would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 100¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 0% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.

Candidate
Southern Nights - Sullivan Fortner Featuring Peter Washington & Marcus GilmoreWINNER	99%	100%
Spirit Fall - John Patitucci Featuring Chris Potter & Brian Blade	9%	50%
Belonging - Branford Marsalis Quartet	1%	50%
Fasten Up - Yellowjackets	1%	50%
Trilogy 3 — Live - Chick Corea, Christian McBride & Brian Blade	1%	50%

Southern Nights - Sullivan Fortner Featuring Peter Washington & Marcus Gilmore Wins: Grammys: Best Jazz Instrumental Album Winner

About This Market

Price History

Final Closing Odds

Frequently Asked Questions

Resolution Oracles

Market Rulebook: Grammys: Best Jazz Instrumental Album Winner