Question 1

What was "Grammys: Record of the Year Winner" and why did it matter?

Accepted Answer

Grammys: Record of the Year Winner was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). luther - Kendrick Lamar and SZA led the market at 100% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Abracadabra - Lady Gaga at 26%, Anxiety - Doechii at 26%, APT. - Rosé and Bruno Mars at 26%.

Question 2

What moved the odds on "Grammys: Record of the Year Winner"?

Accepted Answer

luther - Kendrick Lamar and SZA held the lead at 100% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind luther - Kendrick Lamar and SZA, Abracadabra - Lady Gaga at 26% and Anxiety - Doechii at 26% and APT. - Rosé and Bruno Mars at 26% were the next closest contenders. The 49.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

Question 3

What were the final odds for "Grammys: Record of the Year Winner" across platforms?

Accepted Answer

Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: luther - Kendrick Lamar and SZA: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. Abracadabra - Lady Gaga: 1¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. Anxiety - Doechii: 1¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. APT. - Rosé and Bruno Mars: 1¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. The 49.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.

Question 4

What did 100% odds for luther - Kendrick Lamar and SZA mean?

Accepted Answer

A price of 100¢ meant the market estimated a 100% chance that luther - Kendrick Lamar and SZA would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 100¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 0% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.

Candidate
luther - Kendrick Lamar and SZAWINNER	99%	100%
Abracadabra - Lady Gaga	1%	50%
Anxiety - Doechii	1%	50%
APT. - Rosé and Bruno Mars	1%	50%
DtMF	1%	50%
Manchild - Sabrina Carpenter	1%	50%
The Subway - Chappell Roan	1%	50%
Wildflower - Billie Eilish	1%	50%

luther - Kendrick Lamar and SZA Wins: Grammys: Record of the Year Winner

About This Market

Price History

Final Closing Odds

Frequently Asked Questions

Resolution Oracles

Market Rulebook: Grammys: Record of the Year Winner