What is "Group C Winner" and why does it matter?

Group C Winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Scotland leads at 8% implied probability, making it the market favorite.

What is moving the odds on "Group C Winner"?

Scotland currently leads at 8% implied probability. Platforms were tightly aligned at a 0.2% spread, suggesting broad consensus on the odds.

What are the current odds for "Group C Winner" across platforms?

Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Scotland: 8¢ on Kalshi, 8¢ on Polymarket. Platforms are tightly aligned at a 0.2% spread, leaving little room for cross-platform arbitrage.

What does it mean that Scotland is at 8%?

A price of 8¢ means the market estimates a 8% probability that Scotland will be the outcome. Buying one share at 8¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 1150% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.

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Kalshi / Polymarket

Group C Winner

2026-06-27

About This Market

Scotland is priced at 7.9% implied probability for the “Group C Winner” event. Platforms are tightly aligned at a 0.2% spread.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities

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Market Rulebook: Group C Winner

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Opinion and Polymarket.

Kalshi

Primary Rule

If Scotland finish first in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

If teams are tied on points, the group winner is determined according to the official FIFA World Cup tiebreak criteria. This market and these products have not been endorsed by FIFA. Any references to "FIFA", the "FIFA World Cup," or any other associated marks are descriptive only, and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between FIFA and Kalshi.

Resolution Oracles

ESPN FIFA

Opinion

Primary Rule

This market will resolve according to the team that wins Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage, scheduled for June 11-27, 2026. If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution Oracles

Opinion AI fifa.com

Polymarket

Primary Rule

Resolution Oracles

UMA Optimistic Oraclefifa.comConsensus of Sources

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market Prices Compare Fees Before You Trade New to Polymarket?

Market Rulebook: Group C Winner

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Opinion and Polymarket.

Kalshi

Primary Rule

If Scotland finish first in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

Resolution Oracles

ESPN FIFA

Opinion

Primary Rule

Resolution Oracles

Opinion AI fifa.com

Polymarket

Primary Rule

Resolution Oracles

UMA Optimistic Oraclefifa.comConsensus of Sources

Platform	Implied %	Yes — Bid / Ask		No — Bid / Ask
Kalshi	8.5%	8¢	9¢	91¢	92¢
Polymarket	8.0%	8¢	8¢	92¢	92¢

Group C Winner

About This Market

Price History

Market Rulebook: Group C Winner

Group C Winner

About This Market

Price History

Market Rulebook: Group C Winner

Live Markets

Frequently Asked Questions

Smart Trade Router

Resolution Oracles