Live prediction market odds for Group F Winner. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-06-27
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the Group F Winner for the upcoming 2026 FIFA World Cup. The outcome will influence team standings and potential matchups in the knockout stage, making it a pivotal moment in the tournament.
Netherlands leads the “Group F Winner” event at 54.0% implied probability. Other contenders include Sweden (50.3%), Japan (26.5%), and Tunisia (5.5%). A 69.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Group F includes several strong national teams that are historically competitive in the World Cup. Their performances in the group stage will determine who advances to the knockout rounds.
Winning Group F secures a favorable position in the knockout stage, influencing matchups and potential paths to the final. Teams aim to gain momentum and confidence heading into later rounds.
Odds are influenced by team form, player injuries, and historical performance in international tournaments. Additionally, pre-tournament friendlies and qualifying matches can impact public perception and betting behavior.
Group F Winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Netherlands leads at 54% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Sweden at 50%, Japan at 27%, Tunisia at 6%.
Netherlands currently leads at 54% implied probability. Behind Netherlands, Sweden at 50% and Japan at 27% and Tunisia at 6% are the next closest contenders. The 69.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Opinion.
KalshiIf Tunisia finish first in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
If teams are tied on points, the group winner is determined according to the official FIFA World Cup tiebreak criteria. This market and these products have not been endorsed by FIFA. Any references to "FIFA", the "FIFA World Cup," or any other associated marks are descriptive only, and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between FIFA and Kalshi.
OpinionThis market will resolve according to the team that wins Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage, scheduled for June 11-27, 2026. If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Netherlands
54.0% avg
